Bitcoin beats semiconductor stocks by 25% as Sigel sees path to $100,000

Bitcoin rose 13% from its July low of $57,750 to trade at $65,674 as of 14:30 UTC, outpacing the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index by roughly 25 percentage points this month.

"The relative strength is improving, European fiscal concerns are mounting, and enthusiasm around parts of the AI trade is fading — that's a more constructive setup for Bitcoin," Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said in a CNBC interview Thursday.

Bitcoin's 30-day options delta skew on Deribit has narrowed to 13% from 19% a week earlier, indicating reduced demand for downside hedges, while perpetual futures funding rates have held at a neutral 8% annualized, according to Laevitas data. Open interest stands at $111 billion with 24-hour trading volumes of $147 billion, Coinglass data shows.

The decoupling from tech stocks comes as the Nasdaq-100 fell below 28,800 last week for the first time in five weeks, while the US five-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.33%, pressuring growth stocks. Sigel sees a path for Bitcoin back to $100,000, a level last tested in October 2025 before the asset fell nearly 50% to its current range.

Semiconductor weakness fuels rotation trade

The SOXX has underperformed Bitcoin by roughly 25 percentage points in July as investors rotated out of AI-exposed names amid concerns over excessive valuations in the sector. Shares of memory-chip makers and AI infrastructure plays have declined, with the sell-off accelerating after a string of earnings that failed to justify elevated price multiples.

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, raised $263 million in cash last week through an at-the-money stock offering, bringing its reserves to $3.22 billion, according to company filings. The move eased concerns that the firm might need to sell Bitcoin to meet its $1.76 billion annual dividend obligation to preferred perpetual equity shareholders.

Key levels and the Fed catalyst

Bitcoin faces immediate resistance between $67,000 and $68,000, with a breakout above that zone opening a path toward $70,000 to $72,000 by month-end, according to Maxime Seiler, co-founder and CEO of STS Digital. On the downside, $64,000 serves as near-term support, with $60,000 representing the level "the market cares about," Seiler said.

The Federal Reserve's July 28-29 meeting is the next major catalyst, with traders pricing in a potential rate decision that could resolve Bitcoin's current range-bound trading, Seiler added. Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, identified $64,000 as support and $72,000 as resistance, noting these levels have been "reliable support and resistance levels during this bear market."

Bitcoin's 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has risen for five consecutive sessions, a pattern that has historically preceded price declines since the launch of spot ETFs, according to CryptoQuant data. However, the narrowing put-call skew suggests fear is gradually evaporating from the options market.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.