A new report from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode suggests the crypto market may be forming a bottom, with on-chain metrics for Bitcoin showing renewed strength even as macroeconomic uncertainty persists. Three-quarters of institutional investors surveyed now see the digital asset as undervalued.
"Our outlook on crypto markets is neutral for 2Q26," David Duong, Global Head of Research at Coinbase, said in the report. "The persistent and elevated levels of uncertainty surrounding the current geopolitical landscape make it extremely challenging to take short-term positions with conviction."
On-chain data provides a cautiously optimistic picture. Bitcoin's Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has entered a range historically considered an "accumulation zone," according to the analysis. During the first quarter, the supply held by short-term speculators fell by 37 percent, while long-term holders increased their positions. This shift comes as a survey conducted between mid-March and early April revealed that while 82 percent of institutional respondents see a bear market, 75 percent of them label Bitcoin as undervalued.
The next three to six weeks are seen as a critical test. Analysts are closely watching if the price can hold the $65,000 support level. A failure to do so could invalidate the bottoming signals, whereas a sustained hold could lend structural support for a recovery later in the second quarter.
Veteran on-chain analysts are divided on whether the bottom is confirmed. Willy Woo noted that while Bitcoin is attempting to form a floor, not all the necessary pieces are in place. He gives Bitcoin a 30 percent chance of clearing the recent investor cost basis near $79,000 on this attempt, stating that holding above $65,000 is the key line to watch.
In contrast, crypto trader Ivan Liljeqvist, known as Ivan on Tech, remains unconvinced, pointing out that the price has not printed a higher high or a decisive bullish candle. He also highlighted the "Sell in May" seasonal pattern, which has seen Bitcoin post significant declines in May during past bear markets, including drops of 19 percent in 2018 and 16 percent in 2022.
The neutral outlook from Coinbase is heavily influenced by external factors, including tensions in the Middle East and the risk of a global recession. The International Monetary Fund recently lowered its global growth forecast to 3.1 percent, and Oxford Economics warned a recession could slow growth to just 1.4 percent.
However, a key counter-signal is the growing supply of stablecoins, which climbed from $308 billion to $318 billion in the first quarter. Much of this supply sits on the Ethereum network, nearing all-time highs. Analysts interpret this as capital remaining within the crypto ecosystem, ready to be deployed if market conditions stabilize, providing a potential pool of sidelined liquidity.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
