Bitcoin breaks 31-month pattern above $64,000 as whales accumulate

Bitcoin climbed above $64,000 on Aug. 5, breaking a 31-month sideways pattern, as CryptoQuant data showed long-term holders shifting behavior and spot ETF inflows resumed.

"The Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio fell to 0.031, placing it in the third percentile of the current halving cycle," Axel Adler Jr., an analyst at CryptoQuant, said. "This reflects a market where profitable and losing sellers have become less active."

The move follows a capitulation event on Aug. 3 when more than 32,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges at a realized loss, the largest such movement by short-term holders in 30 days, according to crypto.news. Santiment data shows wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC added 19,610 coins since July 29, while small retail balances dropped 0.55 percent. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $170.1 million of net inflows on Aug. 3 after $265.4 million of outflows on July 31.

The breakout puts Bitcoin above the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement at $63,183, with liquidation clusters at $62,000 and $64,000 creating a mechanical squeeze scenario. A daily close above $64,000 clears the lower cluster and opens a path toward the July peak near $66,900 and the 61.8 percent Fibonacci level at $67,394.

32,000 BTC Hit Exchanges at a Loss Before the Rebound

The Aug. 3 sell-off was driven primarily by short-term holders, defined in on-chain analysis as investors who acquired coins within roughly the previous 155 days. These investors tend to react more quickly to falling prices than long-term holders, and when losses deepen they are statistically more likely to sell into weakness.

Glassnode has described Bitcoin's current market structure as a consolidation regime, with weak spot participation and defensive options positioning. Institutional flows and resilient long-term holders provided support, though broad buying conviction stayed limited.

The accumulation pattern is visible across multiple data points. The Adaptive Sell-side Risk Ratio has stayed below its 25th percentile since late January, and its two-month average has remained below 5 percent, showing prolonged compression. Wintermute's OTC flow report shows institutions accounted for a record 72 percent of spot trading volume in the first half of 2026, up from 59 percent a year earlier. Hedge funds, digital asset treasuries, asset managers and family offices drove that share, with institutional activity now defining market structure, according to the report.

ETF Flows and the Path to $67,000

The question now is whether the breakout holds. Bitcoin faces concentrated trading interest around $62,000 and $64,000, zones that can attract rapid moves when leveraged positions build nearby. A daily close above $64,000 triggers short liquidations and carries momentum toward $66,900, while loss of the $63,183 support exposes BTC to a retest of the $62,000 liquidation cluster and potentially the $60,000 to $61,000 structural zone below.

Institutional demand has begun stabilizing after a volatile period of outflows. The $170.1 million net inflow on Aug. 3 followed $265.4 million of outflows on July 31, indicating that at least part of the institutional bid returned as prices stabilized. For the bullish case to hold, continued ETF inflows, declining exchange balances and improving short-term-holder profitability would suggest that forced selling has largely ended.

For the bearish case, renewed ETF outflows, rising exchange balances and continued realized losses among short-term holders would indicate that the Aug. 3 capitulation failed to clear sufficient selling pressure. The next few trading sessions deserve more attention than the breakout signal itself — heavy realized losses can indicate exhaustion, but only sustained demand through ETF inflows, improving on-chain metrics and price stability can confirm that a new advance has begun.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.