Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin rose to $60,000 for the first time in a week after weaker-than-expected US jobs and factory data revived hopes the Federal Reserve's hawkish turn may be easing.
Bitcoin rose 2.3% to $60,000 as of 12:00 UTC Wednesday, recovering from a 21-month low after softer US jobs and factory data reduced expectations for further Fed rate hikes.
"The macro setup is shifting in Bitcoin's favor — weaker data means the Fed has less room to stay aggressive," Nina Volkov, a crypto macro analyst, said. "If this trend continues, we could see capital rotate back into risk assets."
The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.8, below the 54 consensus estimate, while nonfarm payrolls missed forecasts by 45,000 jobs, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Fed funds futures moved to price out a July rate hike following the releases, with the probability of a hold falling to 62% from 78% a week earlier. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $147 million in net inflows Tuesday, breaking a two-week outflow streak that had seen more than $7 billion exit the products since April, per data from CoinGlass.
The move brings Bitcoin back above the psychologically important $60,000 level, which had flipped from support to resistance after the asset lost the mark on June 24. A sustained hold above $60,000 could open a path toward the next resistance cluster between $63,000 and $67,000, where the largest concentration of historical trading volume sits, according to CoinGecko data. On the downside, support remains at $58,500 to $58,700, a zone that has held during three tests over the past week.
RSI divergence adds to bullish case
The 14-day relative strength index stood at 35.2, up from 32.5 on Monday and moving away from oversold territory, TradingView data shows. Analysts have pointed to a bullish RSI divergence forming on the daily chart — price made a lower low on June 28 while the RSI printed a higher low, a pattern that preceded the end of the 2022 bear market.
Open interest across Bitcoin futures rose 4.2% to $28.3 billion in the past 24 hours, while the funding rate flipped positive to 0.003% after spending three days in negative territory, according to Coinglass data. The shift suggests leveraged traders are beginning to add long exposure after weeks of deleveraging. Total liquidations over the past 24 hours reached $147.4 million, with $116.1 million in long positions and $31.4 million in shorts, per CoinGlass.
July seasonality offers tailwind
Historical data from CoinGlass shows July has been Bitcoin's best-performing month, with positive returns in 10 of the past 12 years. June 2026 is on track for an 18.7% decline, the worst monthly performance since the 2022 bear market, which could set up a mean-reversion bounce if the pattern holds. The S&P 500 is also entering its seasonally strongest month, and a rising equities market has historically provided a tailwind for Bitcoin.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows the UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio at 5.9, its lowest level since 2022, which the analytics firm described as "Bitcoin's first bottoming flag" of the current bear market. The metric measures how broad the market's profit base is beneath price, and a low reading suggests the market is undergoing a meaningful internal clean-up before a potential trend reversal.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
