US Bitcoin demand has been negative for eight straight weeks, the longest stretch in over a year, as capital rotates into semiconductor stocks.
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Bitcoin demand drought hits 8 weeks as $4.4B supply overhang builds
US Bitcoin demand has been negative for eight straight weeks, the longest stretch in over a year, as capital rotates into semiconductor stocks.
Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index has stayed negative since May 6, its longest weak stretch in more than a year, showing fading US demand.
"US buyers are stepping back while money flows into chips," said Kobeissi, noting the semiconductor index has beaten the S&P 500 by about 85 percentage points this year.
Since the streak began with Bitcoin near $81,429, the spot price has slid toward $59,500, a decline of about 27 percent. The rotation is visible in fund flows: since April, US gold and Bitcoin ETFs have lost about $12 billion, while chip ETFs pulled in around $20 billion, data shows. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, the largest bitcoin fund, led June's record ETF outflows, the worst month since spot ETFs launched.
Bitcoin's next move may hinge on whether US buyers return. A flip back to positive premium would be the first real sign of demand recovery. Until then, the path of least resistance points lower.
The supply picture compounds the demand problem. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds sold 71,600 BTC in June, worth over $4 billion, the largest monthly redemption on record, according to Glassnode. Corporate treasuries bought just 7,500 BTC over the same period. Add freshly mined coins, and the net supply overhang reaches roughly 77,000 BTC, or $4.4 billion.
Strategy, the largest corporate bitcoin holder, added to the pressure. The company authorized up to $1.25 billion in potential bitcoin sales on Monday, mainly to build a $2.55 billion US dollar reserve for preferred dividends and interest expenses.
Where the Money Went
The weak US Bitcoin demand lines up with a historic move in stocks. The semiconductor index has beaten the S&P 500 by about 85 percentage points this year, its widest first-half lead on record, topping the dot-com peak of 2000. Micron has jumped about 300 percent and SanDisk more than 760 percent.
Semiconductors now make up roughly 18 percent of the S&P 500 and have driven close to 70 percent of its 2026 gains, data shows. Bitcoin and the Nasdaq usually move together, with a six-month correlation near 0.46. This year, the two have split: Bitcoin is down about 33 percent in 2026, while the tech sector has gained more than 20 percent in the first half. The gap points straight back to chips — the asset class Bitcoin usually tracks is being lifted by the exact sector US buyers are moving into.
The January Precedent
This is not the first time US Bitcoin demand vanished this year. The premium turned negative around Jan. 15, when BTC traded near $95,583. By the time that streak ended on Feb. 24, Bitcoin had crashed to about $64,100 — a drop of roughly 33 percent in six weeks. The current slump is longer and shows the same fading US demand.
Bitcoin traded at $59,250 as of Tuesday, down 1.5 percent on the day, looking set to challenge weekend lows of $58,800. Ether fell 1.7 percent to $1,580, testing a level it has bounced from twice before, in April 2025 and October 2023.
If the premium stays negative and chip inflows continue, Bitcoin could face further downside. The January-February price slump of 33 percent shows that BTC can still correct from current levels. A return to positive premium would be the first real signal that domestic demand is returning.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
