Bitcoin is set to end May with a 3% monthly decline, with traders looking to US manufacturing data next week for a potential catalyst to break the $73,000-$80,000 range.
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Bitcoin faces 3% May loss as US PMI data looms as next catalyst
Bitcoin traded at $73,645 late Sunday, heading for a roughly 3% monthly loss as traders await US ISM Manufacturing PMI data that could determine the next directional move.
"At the moment, the BTC retest of $73,000 has been successful despite recent downside volatility," Rekt Capital, a pseudonymous trader and analyst, said on X. "If Bitcoin manages to weekly close above $73,000, then price will be one step closer to confirming the double bottom breakout."
The $73,000 level represents the neckline of a W-shaped bottom formation developing on the weekly chart since late February. A sustained hold above this level would position Bitcoin to extend its recovery toward the upper end of the $60,000-$80,000 range that Daan Crypto Trades identified as the current macro trading band. Data from CoinGlass shows Bitcoin down 3.1% month-to-date as of 15:00 UTC Sunday.
The coming week brings the ISM Manufacturing PMI for May, followed by the JOLTS job openings report and ADP private payrolls data — releases that The Kobeissi Letter described as making the week "all about the labor market." A positive surprise in manufacturing data could boost risk appetite and push Bitcoin toward the $80,000 resistance zone, while a miss risks accelerating the selloff toward $67,000.
Macro crosscurrents leave Bitcoin range-bound
US stocks set fresh all-time highs last week, with the S&P 500 closing at 7,580, yet Bitcoin failed to catch a tailwind from the equity rally or from easing geopolitical tensions tied to progress on a US-Iran ceasefire. President Donald Trump said he was "in no hurry" to finalize an Iran deal, according to a post by The Kobeissi Letter on X, removing one potential source of positive sentiment for risk assets.
On the inflation front, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index printed at its highest level in nearly three years on May 28. Despite the elevated reading, both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 set new records that day, suggesting markets believe the Federal Reserve will remain patient. For Bitcoin, the persistence of elevated rates remains a headwind, as higher real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, argued on X that if Bitcoin continues to track growth and risk appetite, it needs to reprice higher from current levels following recent PMI data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has offered Bitcoin price relief in prior months, and a repeat of that pattern could provide the catalyst needed for a breakout above the $73,000-$80,000 range.
On the downside, Daan Crypto Trades noted that Bitcoin is trading at its bull market support band after a failed retest in recent weeks, with the weekly 200-period moving average and exponential moving average continuing to converge on price. "With all these big high timeframe weekly levels around this area, I would not be surprised to see us trade between $60,000 and $80,000 for quite a while," he said.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Bitcoin is on the Verge of Locking in 3% May Losses[2] S&P 500 Monthly Review: Index Sets New Record at 7,580, Notching Ninth Consecutive Weekly Gain on AI Rally and Iran Optimism[3] China factory activity stalls in May as demand weakens[4] Bitcoin preps 3% May downside, but US PMI data may boost BTC price - MSN[5] Extreme Volatility Positioning Raises Pullback Risk - Mott Capital Management
