Bitcoin flashes 3 macro-bottom signals as $70K resistance comes into focus

Bitcoin is flashing three macro-bottom technical signals, with the largest cryptocurrency trading at $66,000 as of July 21.

"The combination of a completed rounding top near $120,000, an exhausted bear flag, and a retest of the ascending broadening wedge support has historically preceded major reversals," Muhammad Umair, a financial analyst and founder of Gold Predictors, said. "But the liquidity picture remains mixed."

The three signals include the completion of a rounding top pattern that formed near the January record of $126,000, a bear flag breakdown that reached its measured move target near $50,000 to $55,000 in February, and a subsequent bounce that is now retesting the lower boundary of the ascending broadening wedge, according to technical analysis published by Gold Predictors. Bitcoin recovered from the February low to trade at $66,000, per CoinGecko data. A similar macro-bottom signal in a prior cycle preceded a 675% rally, historical pattern analysis shows.

A decisive break above $70,000 would represent the first higher high since January and could confirm the macro-bottom thesis. A failure at this level would expose the $50,000 to $55,000 support zone, where the ascending broadening pattern's lower boundary sits.

Conflicting liquidity signals

While the technical formations point to a potential bottom, on-chain liquidity data tells a different story. Open interest across major exchanges has declined from the January peak, and funding rates have turned negative, according to Coinglass data — a setup that has historically preceded short squeezes but also reflects reduced speculative appetite. Stablecoin reserves on exchanges have also declined, suggesting limited buying power for a sustained rally.

Bitcoin's dominance rate has slipped as capital rotated into Ethereum and select altcoins following the White House's endorsement of the CLARITY Act ethics package, which provided regulatory clarity for the broader crypto market.

Macro headwinds persist

The macro environment continues to weigh on risk assets. Gold has rallied 64% year-to-date to trade above $4,300, drawing safe-haven flows as geopolitical tensions persist and U.S. labor market data softens. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021, while markets price in two rate cuts for 2026, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and CME FedWatch data.

The divergence between gold and Bitcoin — with gold gaining while Bitcoin declined from its January record — suggests investors continue to favor hard assets during periods of macro uncertainty. The gold-to-Bitcoin ratio has broken above the 0.05 level, confirming the rotation in favor of precious metals, per Gold Predictors analysis.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.