Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin traded near $65,300 on June 17, down 1.7% in European hours, as traders weighed a convergence of on-chain bottom signals against the Federal Reserve's hawkish turn under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
"Interest is as high as it's ever been" among registered investment advisors, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told CoinDesk, though he cautioned the next bull market "will be slower and less volatile than in the past" as Wall Street shifts attention to tokenization and AI.
The Sharpe ratio — measuring return against volatility — dropped to -20 on June 11, a level that has coincided with every major cycle low since 2015, according to CryptoQuant data. In each prior instance, the metric preceded months of basing rather than an immediate rebound: roughly five months in 2015 and three months each in 2018-19 and 2022-23. Accumulator wallets absorbed approximately 125,000 BTC in the first half of June, while exchange reserves fell 80,000 coins since February to about 2.71 million, per Glassnode data. Whales pulled more than 11,000 BTC off exchanges in the past day alone. The Binance order book imbalance — measuring buy-side relative to sell-side liquidity — surged to its highest level since February 2024, Glassnode data show.
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% in its first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh, but the updated dot plot showed 9 of 18 members projecting a rate hike in 2026, pushing the two-year Treasury yield 9 basis points higher to 4.14%. Higher-for-longer rates complicate the outlook for non-yielding assets like bitcoin, though falling oil prices — Brent crude retreated to about $75 per barrel after the US-Iran peace deal — could prove disinflationary in coming months. The formal US-Iran signing is scheduled for June 19.
The RHODL Ratio, which compares wealth held by long-term holders against fresh short-term capital, is beginning to roll over from its peak — a pattern that emerged at both the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, according to Glassnode data. Long-term holders now control 79% of circulating supply, K33 Research estimates, while only 218,421 BTC have been re-activated in 2026 versus 1.18 million at the same point in 2024.
Bitcoin spot ETFs showed early signs of stabilization after shedding more than $5 billion since May 15. BlackRock's IBIT attracted more than $150 million over four consecutive days, though the sector still recorded $54 million in net outflows this week, on track for a sixth straight week of withdrawals, SoSoValue data show.
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of Skybridge Capital, said he expects bitcoin to begin rallying in late 2026 and continue into early 2027, describing current market apathy as a potential opportunity. "Depressed RSI levels, weak sentiment, and thin market liquidity mean even modest demand could drive bitcoin sharply higher," he said.
The key question is whether the on-chain accumulation signals can withstand the macro headwind. Fitch Ratings said the Fed's decision to hold rates steady "suggests the central bank remains focused on preventing a renewed inflation surge," with Olu Sonola, Fitch's head of US economics, noting that "the Kevin Warsh era may signal a new leadership chapter, but not a new inflation regime."
Bitwise's Hougan said he still expects bitcoin "north of $1 million in the next 10 years," but acknowledged uncertainty around the near-term path. "I think we have to wait to see how the four-year cycle plays out," he said.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
