Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin held $64,000 on Tuesday as the 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.33%, its highest since 2007, while Brent crude topped $91 on US-Iran escalation.
"We think uncertainty is the larger driver," Mark Cabana, a bond market strategist at BofA Global Research, said. "There is literally a price to be paid for the lack of guidance that Warsh seems so set on. And the price is higher interest rates and a higher cost to the taxpayer."
The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond rose to as high as 5.327%, a level last seen in June 2007, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 4.739%. The Treasury sold $25 billion of 30-year bonds last week at a yield of 5.22%, the highest auction rate since 2001. The Congressional Budget Office raised its annual budget deficit projection to $2.1 trillion, $200 billion more than expected in February.
Brent crude climbed above $91 as Iran said it would shift to a "fully offensive" military posture after talks to end the US-Iran conflict stalled. US stocks closed lower Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding more than 270 points. The bond selloff extended globally, with Japan's 10-year government bond yield reaching a 30-year peak, Germany's 10-year Bund touching its highest since May 2011, and France's 10-year yields hitting a 17-year high.
For Bitcoin, the $64,000 level represents a critical support zone. A break below could trigger further downside as capital rotates out of speculative assets into government bonds offering yields above 5 percent. Rising long-term yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, while oil-driven inflation concerns keep the Federal Reserve from easing. The transmission chain is direct: higher yields make safer assets more attractive relative to crypto, and the risk-off tone from geopolitical escalation reduces appetite for volatile positions.
Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, said competition for capital from AI hyperscalers, a rising US budget deficit, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's departure from transparency were all contributing to higher Treasury yields. "Rising long US bond yields is a risk that investors must bear in mind," Menon said. The 30-year yield's surge above 5.3 percent marks a structural shift from the post-2008 era of low rates, and the uncertainty premium embedded in bond yields is likely to persist, keeping pressure on risk assets including Bitcoin.
Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can hold the $64,000 level through the Asian session. A decisive break below could accelerate selling, while a bounce would signal resilience in the face of deteriorating macro conditions. The next major test comes with any further escalation in the US-Iran conflict or additional Treasury auction data this week.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
