Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin fell 1.7% to $73,500 as institutional investors pulled $2.9 billion from US spot ETFs over 10 days, the longest outflow streak this year.
"The breakdown of the bullish market structure below $73,900 invalidated the trend-continuation scenario and confirmed a shift toward lower lows," Aksel Kibar, a technical analyst, said.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded roughly $1.4 billion in weekly outflows through May 31, with BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust alone seeing $528 million exit in a single session, according to CoinGlass data. The outflows pushed year-to-date net inflows into negative territory for the first time since January. More than 40% of Bitcoin's circulating supply is now held at a loss, contributing to a 9% decline in network hashrate as miners redirect capacity toward AI data centers.
The $73,500 level represents the last line of defense before a potential drop to the $70,000-to-$71,400 zone, where the February-to-June uptrend line and April lows converge. A break below that range would open the path toward $70,461, the April 9 low. On the upside, BTC needs to reclaim the $74,156 level — the May 23 low — to shift the short-term outlook back to neutral.
The divergence between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets has widened. The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to nine weeks, while the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF rallied 36% from its April low and reclaimed its 200-day moving average. Bitcoin, by contrast, trades nearly 10% below its own 200-day MA of $79,388, according to TradingView data.
The 20-day rolling correlation between BTC and IGV has fallen to 0.58, a level last seen before Bitcoin's rally from $25,000 to $70,000 in late 2023 and ahead of its surge past $100,000 following the US election in late 2024. Historically, such periods of low correlation have resolved with Bitcoin catching up to equities.
Macroeconomic headwinds have compounded the selling pressure. Escalating US-Iran tensions kept oil prices elevated, reigniting inflation fears and pushing Treasury yields higher. The market now prices a diminished probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the June meeting, with the next key test coming from the US unemployment report on June 5, where consensus stands at 4.3%.
Stablecoin flows reflect the risk-off posture. USDC dominance returned above the critical 10.5% level, while USDT issuance fell by $1.2 billion in a single day, signaling large institutional capital moving into fiat ahead of the macro data.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
