CryptoQuant's CVDD model points to a structural Bitcoin cycle bottom near $48,000, with analyst Axel Adler Jr. identifying the level as a key long-term support zone. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio has entered a red zone historically associated with market bottoms, while $60,000 serves as an accumulation area for long-term investors.
Bitcoin could find a structural cycle bottom near $48,000, according to CryptoQuant's CVDD model, with an accumulation zone forming around $60,000.
"The CVDD model has historically marked major cycle bottoms, and current readings suggest the market is approaching that territory," Axel Adler Jr., an on-chain analyst at CryptoQuant, said. The Sell-Side Risk Ratio has entered a red zone that previously coincided with market bottoms, Adler added, reinforcing the case for a near-term floor.
The CVDD, or Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed, metric tracks the cumulative value of coins moved on-chain relative to their age, providing a long-term valuation floor. When the metric reaches certain thresholds, it has historically indicated that selling pressure is exhausted and accumulation begins. Adler identified $48,000 as a potential structural bottom, with $60,000 serving as an accumulation zone where long-term investors may begin building positions.
The Sell-Side Risk Ratio measures the ratio of spent output value to realized cap, capturing whether holders are selling at a profit or loss relative to their cost basis. A reading in the red zone suggests that most sellers have capitulated, reducing further downside pressure — a pattern observed at prior cycle turning points.
A decline to $48,000 would test market resilience, potentially triggering panic selling among retail investors while offering a clear entry point for long-term holders. The prediction comes as Bitcoin faces reduced demand and bearish sentiment, with the CVDD model providing a data-driven framework for where the next cycle low may form.
The $48,000 level aligns with previous on-chain support zones identified by Glassnode and other analytics platforms, reinforcing the significance of the price point. Bitcoin's realized price and MVRV ratio, two additional on-chain metrics, have also shown readings consistent with late-cycle bear phases in prior market structures. The convergence of multiple on-chain indicators at similar price levels strengthens the case for a durable bottom near $48,000 should Bitcoin decline to that range.
For long-term investors, the $60,000 accumulation zone offers a potential entry window before the next cyclical uptrend, assuming historical CVDD patterns hold. The model's track record across previous cycles — including the 2018 and 2022 bottoms — gives weight to the current projection, though past performance does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin's correlation with macro liquidity conditions and spot ETF flows will also influence whether the $48,000 level holds as support.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
