Key Takeaways:
Bitcoin's monthly relative strength index has fallen to its second-lowest level in 17 years, a pattern that has marked the exact bottom of every prior bear market in the asset's history.
Bitcoin traded at $64,045 as of 14:00 UTC on June 22, down 22 percent from its October all-time high of $126,173, as the monthly RSI dropped to its second-lowest reading since 2009 — a level that coincided with the final bottoms of the 2015, 2019 and 2022 bear markets.
"The monthly RSI hitting this level has only happened at the exact bottom of every bear market in Bitcoin's history," pseudonymous analyst Doctor Profit, who correctly called the October peak at $126,000, said in a post on X. "My target is a dump to $54,000 to $56,000 first before we move sideways and then another leg down to the $40,000 to $50,000 region."
The 14-day RSI currently sits at 41.38, below the neutral 50 threshold but rising from its recent lows. Bitcoin's 24-hour volume jumped 30 percent to $129.9 billion, while open interest held steady around $108 billion, according to Coinglass. Liquidations rose 41 percent to $212 million, with longs accounting for $118.4 million. Options markets continue to favor downside protection, with BTC puts trading at a premium to calls on Deribit, and traders have bought put options targeting $52,000.
The $60,000 support level represents the line between a base formation and a deeper correction. A breakdown below that floor could send Bitcoin toward $54,000 to $55,000, according to Fibonacci analysis on the two-week chart, with the 1.618 retracement level landing near $53,397. The next potential cycle bottom, based on historical EMA cycle patterns, points to a window between September and November 2026.
$66,000 Is the Pivot
A daily close above $66,000 would show a full trend reversal and open the path to $73,000 and beyond, according to analyst Michaël van de Poppe. The level has capped upside since Bitcoin's bounce from $60,000, with analysts at Marx noting the asset is "stuck between key support near $60,000 and resistance around $66,000 to $68,000."
Bitcoin's failed breakdown below $60,000 — where it swept beneath support and reversed — has drawn comparisons to textbook accumulation patterns. The daily chart shows a Change of Character signal from LuxAlgo's Smart Money Concepts, suggesting the market may be moving from distribution back into accumulation. A larger ascending parallel channel on the weekly timeframe projects recovery toward $100,000 to $112,000 at its upper boundary.
Institutional Positioning Diverges
Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, holds 846,842 Bitcoin as of June 2026, worth roughly $54.13 billion at current prices. Its average purchase price of $75,658 per coin represents a paper loss of approximately 13.22 percent. The company has made 113 separate purchase entries and added $35 million in Bitcoin last week alone, according to a filing.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," said on June 20 that he is buying gold, silver and Bitcoin, arguing that global leaders are making economic conditions worse and that hard assets will benefit from the erosion of purchasing power.
The Bear Case
Not all indicators point to a bottom. Doctor Profit's bear flag pattern on the daily chart identifies Bitcoin's selloff from the May high of $82,000 to under $60,000 as the pole and the recent bounce to $68,000 as the flag. A breakdown from this pattern could extend the decline to $54,000 initially, with a possible move toward $40,000 to $50,000.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in Extreme Fear territory, and spot Bitcoin ETFs continued to see outflows in late January. The 50-day moving average has crossed below the 200-day, keeping the death-cross pattern alive. ERGAG Crypto's two-week chart analysis shows the 21 EMA crossing below the 55 EMA, a bearish cross that appeared in the same position in two prior Bitcoin cycles just before the macro bottom formed, with historical timing placing the actual low 84 to 113 days after the cross.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
