Bitcoin nears $60,000 as analysts split on potential bottom near $45,000

Bitcoin is trading in a technical no man's land below key support levels, with on-chain data and historical patterns suggesting a durable bottom may not arrive until the asset falls toward $45,000.

Bitcoin fell 3.8% over the past week to $60,065 as of 07:00 UTC Monday, sliding below its 200-week moving average for the first time since September 2024.

"The market is showing the first clear sign of a deeper clean-up, but history suggests more stress is needed before the bearish phase exhausts itself," I. Moreno, a contributor at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, said in a research note Sunday.

CryptoQuant's UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio, which measures the breadth of profitability across unspent transaction outputs, fell to 5.9 — its lowest since the 2022 bear market and one of the lowest readings on record. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's Power-Law Quantile dropped to 6.2%, a zone that coincided with cycle bottoms in 2015, 2020 and 2023, according to data shared by analyst Crypto Patel. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $445 million in outflows on June 26, pushing June's total to $4.06 billion, the worst month on record.

The question facing traders is whether these rare on-chain signals mark an actual bottom or merely a pause before another leg lower. Analysts remain divided, with forecasts ranging from $40,000 to $55,000 as the next durable support level, and historical patterns suggesting a potential floor near $45,000.

RSI Divergence Offers Rare Bullish Signal

Bitcoin's relative strength index is printing bullish divergences across multiple time frames, a pattern that preceded major trend changes including the end of the 2022 bear market. The four-hour chart shows a bullish RSI divergence forming alongside a potential double bottom, according to pseudonymous trader Gerla. On the daily chart, the divergence stands out from previous 2026 dips that lacked the signal entirely.

"Small sample size but still noteworthy," trader Heisenberg said on X. "The last two recent drops had no RSI divergences — until now."

Analysts Split on Where the Floor Lies

Samson Mow, the bitcoin advocate known for his work with El Salvador's bitcoin initiatives, argued the bottom is already in, saying the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated after bitcoin reached an all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving.

Others disagree. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, sees the bottom closer to $55,000, likely between August and October. Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder, took a more bearish stance, predicting a floor near $40,000 within six months. CoinDesk senior analyst James Van Straten said the $50,000 to $54,000 range could become the next key battleground, noting that bitcoin has not yet fallen below its realized price — a level that marked every major cycle bottom since 2011.

Technical analysis adds to the caution. Bitcoin is forming a bear flag on the four-hour chart between $58,131 and $60,902, a continuation pattern that typically resolves lower. The asset sits 7.6% below its 200-period moving average, with the SuperTrend, Ichimoku Cloud and a strong ADX of 36.97 all confirming bearish control, according to Investing.com data.

July Seasonality Offers a Potential Reprieve

History favors a rebound in July. Data from CoinGlass shows June is on track for a 19% loss, the worst month since the 2022 bear market. In previous years, July has tended to reverse June's weakness, with only three exceptions since 2013.

Still, trader and analyst Rekt Capital believes the current bear trend remains months from completion, estimating the cycle is 71% complete as of June 22. A sustained recovery would require bitcoin to reclaim the $61,700 level and break above the bear flag's upper boundary near $62,953, levels that have held as resistance since mid-June.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.