Bitcoin nears $62,400 as bear cross signals potential bottom after 50% slide

Bitcoin's 50-week moving average is about to cross below its 100-week line — a pattern that has marked the end of every bear market in the token's history.

Bitcoin traded near $62,400 on June 23, down 50% from its October peak of $126,000, as a historically accurate contrarian indicator flashed a potential bottom signal.

"There have been three such bear crosses in bitcoin's history, and each marked a market bottom, signaling the end of a decline and the beginning of a three-year rally," CoinDesk reported, citing the 50-week and 100-week simple moving averages.

The 50-week SMA stood at $89,771 and the 100-week SMA at $88,397, with the gap narrowing to less than $1,400. At current trajectories, the cross could occur as soon as next week. The signal arrives after bitcoin shed roughly $64,000 in value from its all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025.

The bear cross is a lagging indicator — it reflects price action that has already occurred — but its contrarian track record suggests the selling may be exhausted. Short-term holders have already offloaded more than 80,000 BTC on Binance over the past seven days, representing roughly $5 billion in selling pressure, according to CryptoQuant.

The Dollar Headwind

The signal comes as bitcoin faces headwinds from a resurgent US dollar. The US dollar index climbed back above 100 for the first time in over a year, a level that has historically correlated with weakness in risk assets. DXY was testing its 200-day moving average as of Monday, with traders watching whether it holds above the 100 threshold.

"The 200-week SMA near $62,200 held the weekend dips, and that line with the $60,000 shelf is what separates a base from a deeper leg," analysts at Marx said in a note. "We buy near the 200 week and sell into resistance, we do not chase the middle."

Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume jumped 30% to $129.9 billion, while open interest held steady at roughly $108 billion. Liquidations rose 41% to $212 million, with long positions accounting for $118.4 million of that total. Open interest in BTC futures has declined to 722,000 BTC from a peak of 801,000 BTC on June 4, signaling a reduction in leveraged positioning.

Options markets reflect lingering caution. Bitcoin and ether puts continue to trade at a premium to calls on Deribit, indicating stronger demand for downside protection. The 30-day implied volatility indexes for both assets remain in recent ranges, suggesting no rush into options for protection or speculation.

Resistance and the Oil Tailwind

On the upside, resistance sits between $66,000 and $68,000, according to Marx. A break below the 200-week SMA near $62,200 could open the door to a test of $60,000 support, with some analysts warning that a bear flag pattern on the daily chart could send prices as low as $54,000.

Oil prices have provided a tailwind after the US-Iran peace deal pushed West Texas Intermediate crude to $73 per barrel, its lowest since early March and nearly 40% below its local peak. Bitcoin has shown a broadly inverse correlation to oil in recent weeks, with the decline in energy prices supporting the case for $60,000 as a durable floor.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index — the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — is due Thursday. April's reading hit a three-year high, reflecting the impact of the US-Iran war on inflation trends. Markets are pricing roughly a 36% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's July 29 meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.