Bitcoin put-call ratio hits 1-year high as bears target $55K drop

The premium paid on Bitcoin put options on Deribit totaled $115 million on June 26, seven times the $16 million paid on calls — the widest imbalance in 12 months, Laevitas data shows.

"The elevated put-call ratio reflects a market that is aggressively hedging downside, but it does not necessarily signal conviction from bears," analysts at QCP Capital said in their latest Market Color note.

The Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew stood at 19% on Monday, meaning market makers are unwilling to hold downside price exposure — a level that has persisted for four weeks. The bearish positioning coincides with seven consecutive weeks of net outflows from US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs, which have shattered hopes of a bounce from the $58,050 lows touched on June 25, SoSoValue data shows.

A retest of $55,000 should not be dismissed, but the increased demand for downside hedging does not confirm bearish conviction. Bitcoin was trading near $60,000 on Monday, with the $58,000 to $61,000 range defining near-term action.

RSI Divergence Echoes 2022 Bear Market Bottom

Despite the bearish options positioning, relative strength index readings across multiple time frames are flashing a contrasting signal. A bullish divergence — where RSI makes higher lows while price makes lower lows — has formed on the four-hour and daily charts, a pattern that preceded Bitcoin's 2022 bear market bottom at $15,600.

"Once you see it, you can't unsee it. It's 2022 again," pseudonymous trader Rod wrote on X, comparing the current setup to the cycle low that preceded a durable market floor.

Crypto analyst Lukasz Wydra described the RSI signals as an "encouraging sign," noting that Binance continues to defend the price despite the bearish options flow.

ETF Outflows and Capital Rotation

The bearish pressure is not isolated to derivatives. Retail investors appear to be rotating out of gold and Bitcoin into semiconductor stocks, according to analysis from The Kobeissi Letter. Bloomberg data shows over $20 billion in cumulative inflows into semiconductor ETFs, driving an 81% rally in the iShares Semiconductor ETF and 60% gains in the VanEck Semiconductor ETF.

Bitcoin's weakness can also be partially pinned to discomfort around MicroStrategy's ability to pay dividends and manage debt maturing in 2027. The company responded Monday by announcing an additional $1.2 billion in cash from recent share sales and setting aside $1.25 billion in Bitcoin for eventual sale — a move that eases short-term concerns but creates anxiety about supply dynamics.

What to Watch

Onchain analytics platform Glassnode said buyers "have so far lacked the conviction required to establish a sustained recovery," with spot markets experiencing persistent net selling despite increased trading activity. The firm noted that a shift toward supply ownership by more speculative investors has increased the potential for price volatility.

"Bitcoin appears to be stabilizing around the $60,000 region, but with spot order flow, derivatives positioning, and institutional demand all remaining defensive, a sustained recovery is likely to require a meaningful return of buyer conviction," Glassnode concluded.

CryptoQuant contributor I. Moreno pointed to the UTXO Block P/L Count Ratio falling to 5.9 — its lowest since 2022 — as Bitcoin's "first bottoming flag" of the current bear market, though he cautioned that "the market may still need to absorb more stress before the bearish phase can fully exhaust itself."

History offers some hope for bulls: July has been a green month for Bitcoin in 10 of the past 13 years, typically reversing June's weakness. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital noted that if the pattern holds, July could bring relief before a potential August pullback.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.