Bitcoin reclaims $74,000 as Trump and Iran pitch conflicting ceasefire terms

Bitcoin climbed back above $74,000 on Friday as traders priced in ceasefire hopes, even as Washington and Tehran offered conflicting accounts of the deal.

Bitcoin rose 1.1% to $74,161 as of 14:30 UTC on Friday, recovering above the psychologically important $74,000 level after President Donald Trump signaled a draft ceasefire framework with Iran was on the table.

"Trump said Iran 'must agree' to permanently abandon nuclear weapons, reopen the Strait of Hormuz with no tolls, and allow the United States to remove buried enriched uranium left after a B-2 bomber strike last year," according to a White House statement. Iranian officials responded within hours through Fars News, rejecting several core claims and demanding $12 billion in frozen assets released up front, a Lebanon ceasefire as a precondition, and no clause requiring toll-free Hormuz passage.

The split echoes earlier Hormuz deal speculation that lifted crypto markets only to fade once disputed terms surfaced publicly. The New York Times reported the draft framework includes a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, rebranded by US negotiators as an international investment fund — a figure Trump did not mention in his statement.

The recovery comes after a brutal week for Bitcoin. The asset had fallen below $73,000 on Thursday as Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps targeted a US airbase in Kuwait, triggering a broad risk-off wave that pushed the total crypto market cap from $2.54 trillion to $2.45 trillion in a single session. Over $800 million in combined Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF outflows marked the largest single-day net redemption in weeks, with the outflow streak now extending eight consecutive sessions. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 31, firmly in "Fear" territory.

The $1.3 billion test that didn't break the market

On Tuesday, someone sold 29 million shares of BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust in a single transaction worth approximately $1.29 billion — the largest block trade in IBIT's 15-month history. Bitcoin's price was essentially unchanged on the day. Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital called it proof that Bitcoin's institutional market infrastructure has grown deep enough to absorb shocks that would have caused a 20% to 30% wipeout in a previous cycle.

The trade was executed through a dark pool before market open, preventing a cascade of stop-losses and liquidations that a direct market sell would have triggered. The seller's identity remains unknown, with speculation ranging from a hedge fund to a sovereign wealth fund.

What comes next for Bitcoin

For Bitcoin to sustain above $74,000, traders need either a confirmed ceasefire with verifiable terms or a macro catalyst strong enough to restore institutional risk appetite. The next meaningful resistance sits at $78,500, where the 200-day EMA currently resides. Support at the $70,500 to $71,000 band must hold to prevent a retest of the $68,000 level, which would confirm a structural shift beyond a geopolitical reaction.

The $2.26 billion that has exited US spot Bitcoin ETFs since May 14 has wiped out most of 2026's net accumulation, which now stands at just 4,500 BTC. For the outflow streak to reverse, traders are watching for either a geopolitical de-escalation signal or a cooler CPI print strong enough to restore appetite for high-risk allocations. Neither is currently on the immediate calendar.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.