Bitcoin slides 8% to $92,400 as SpaceX IPO fuels rotation fears

The $1.8 trillion SpaceX IPO is pulling liquidity out of crypto, and on-chain data is starting to confirm it.

Bitcoin fell 8.2% to $92,400 over the weekend as traders rotated capital toward SpaceX's record $1.8 trillion IPO, scheduled to begin trading on Nasdaq on June 12 under the ticker SPX. Trading volume surged to $48.2 billion over the past 24 hours, nearly double the seven-day average of $25.1 billion, CoinGecko data shows, while Bitcoin's market cap slipped to $1.83 trillion with dominance edging down to 52.4%.

"We're seeing a textbook capital rotation event — traders are selling BTC and ETH to free up cash for the SpaceX allocation," Nina Volkov, a crypto macro analyst, said. "The magnitude is unusual because this IPO is bigger than anything the market has ever absorbed."

Open interest on Bitcoin futures fell 12% to $28.4 billion, while funding rates flipped negative for the first time in three weeks at -0.005%, according to Coinglass. Ether followed Bitcoin lower, dropping 7.6% to $3,210 as the correlation between the two assets held above 0.85. The selloff comes as SpaceX's IPO — valued at 55% above its estimated intrinsic value, per Morningstar — has already pre-committed 78% of its offering to institutional investors, limiting free float and intensifying demand for the remaining shares.

The Capital Rotation Case

The theory is straightforward: SpaceX's IPO is the largest in history at a projected $1.75 trillion to $1.8 trillion valuation, and investors are selling liquid assets — including Bitcoin — to fund their allocations. Friday's broader market rout, which erased $1.4 trillion in S&P 500 market value after a hotter-than-expected jobs report pushed rate-cut expectations further out, amplified the pressure on risk assets across the board. The tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 tumbled 4.8%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index plunged 10.3%, creating a double headwind for crypto.

On-chain data supports the rotation narrative. Whale wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC reduced their positions by 2.3% over the past 72 hours, according to Glassnode, while exchange inflows spiked to 42,300 BTC — the highest single-weekend total since March. Stablecoin supply on centralized exchanges contracted by $1.8 billion, suggesting traders are converting crypto to fiat rather than rotating into other digital assets.

The Counterargument

Not all analysts are convinced the IPO is the primary driver. Friday's macro shock — a jobs report that pushed the two-year Treasury yield 18 basis points higher to 4.12% — reset the discount rate for all risk assets, making high-multiple stories like SpaceX and high-volatility assets like Bitcoin equally vulnerable. The Nasdaq-100's 4.8% decline and Bitcoin's 8.2% drop may simply be two expressions of the same macro repricing rather than a causal rotation chain.

SpaceX's own fundamentals add another layer of uncertainty. The company lost $4.3 billion in the first quarter and is being priced at a 55% premium to intrinsic value, according to Morningstar. Historical data from the University of Florida shows that roughly 60% of IPOs are flat or negative three years after listing, suggesting that post-IPO enthusiasm could fade quickly — potentially sending capital back into crypto if the rotation was purely speculative.

What to Watch

The key test comes on June 12, when SpaceX begins trading. If Bitcoin holds above $90,000 through the listing date, the rotation thesis weakens. A break below that level with elevated exchange inflows would confirm that IPO-driven selling is still underway. The next resistance sits at $98,000, a level Bitcoin failed to reclaim after the selloff began.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.