Bitcoin slides below $77,000 as US strikes on Iran fuel risk-off move

Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $76,840 by 01:30 UTC on May 26 after reports of US military strikes against Iranian targets triggered a broad risk-asset selloff.

"Geopolitical shocks of this magnitude tend to hit crypto harder than traditional safe havens because the market is still predominantly retail-driven and reacts to headlines in real time," said Nina Volkov, macro analyst at Edgen. "The question is whether this is a one-day liquidation event or the start of a sustained de-risking."

The move erased roughly $20 billion from Bitcoin's market capitalization within three hours, with CoinGecko data showing 24-hour trading volume surging to $38.2 billion, well above the seven-day average of $28.5 billion. Coinglass data recorded $187 million in long liquidations across centralized exchanges during the selloff, with Binance and OKX accounting for the largest share. Open interest dropped 4.3% to $52.1 billion, while the funding rate flipped negative to -0.005%, signaling that leveraged longs were being flushed out.

The breakdown below $77,000 puts Bitcoin's next major support at $76,000, a level that analysts at K33 Research said mirrors patterns seen during previous market cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022. A break below that threshold could accelerate selling toward the $67,000 CME gap, according to Merlijn The Trader. On the upside, Bitcoin must reclaim the 200-day moving average near $78,500 to confirm the move was a tactical fakeout rather than the start of a deeper correction.

The geopolitical trigger adds a new variable to a market already wrestling with technical headwinds. Bitcoin had been rejected twice at the 200-day moving average near $82,400 in early May, and the failure to hold above $80,000 left the asset vulnerable to external shocks. The US Navy's strikes, first reported by multiple outlets around 22:30 UTC on May 25, accelerated a decline that had already been underway as Asian markets opened.

$76,000 Support Becomes the Line in the Sand

The $76,000 level has emerged as the most watched technical threshold. Ali Martinez noted that a well-defined channel on lower timeframes shows the mid-range at $76,900 and the channel bottom at $76,000. A flip of $77,800 into support could clear a path toward $79,000, but failure to hold the channel bottom would open the door to a retest of the February 2026 low near $60,000.

More bearish scenarios exist. Analyst Phila warned that Bitcoin just broke a support level that had held for 14 years, calling the move "capitulation happening in real time" and projecting a decline toward $55,000. He drew parallels to the 2021-2022 cycle, where a relief rally that felt like a bottom was followed by another leg lower.

On the bullish side, Cryptic Trades characterized the breakdown below key support as a calculated fakeout designed to shake out overleveraged positions, noting that the bottoming structure established in April 2025 remains intact. A weekly close above the 1D Bull Market Support Band at $78,500 would shift the outlook back to bullish.

The Iran situation remains fluid, and further escalation could drive additional selling. Gold, the traditional safe haven, rallied 1.8% to $3,245 per ounce during the same period, while the US Dollar Index edged up 0.3%, underscoring the rotation out of risk assets.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.