Bitcoin's $10.5 billion quarterly options expiry on Friday finds its max pain strike at $72,000 — nearly $11,000 above the current spot price, a gap that challenges the conventional pinning theory.
Back
Bitcoin slides to $61,118 as $10.5 billion options expiry nears
Bitcoin fell to $61,118 as traders positioned for a $10.5 billion quarterly options expiry, with the max pain level at $72,000 left far above the spot price.
Data from Coinglass shows the heaviest concentration of open interest sits at the $72,000 strike, the level where options sellers face the least aggregate payout. With most outstanding positions structured as bullish bets, the gap between spot and max pain reduces dealers' incentive to defend that level through hedging, according to derivatives market analysis. The $72,000 strike sits roughly 18% above the current market price, an unusually wide divergence for the final 24 hours before settlement.
Quarterly expiries typically see spot price gravitate toward max pain as dealers adjust gamma exposure. The current setup suggests a diminished pinning effect, potentially amplifying volatility after settlement. Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume has picked up as the expiry approaches, with open interest across all strikes representing roughly 170,000 bitcoin at current prices.
The $10.5 billion notional value makes this one of the largest quarterly settlements of 2026. A settlement well below the $72,000 max pain level would mark a bearish signal for the coming quarter, with traders focused on the $60,000 support zone as the next key level. Bitcoin's continued decline in the lead-up to expiry has pushed some market participants to adopt defensive positioning, according to market data.
Ether has also faced pressure, trading lower alongside bitcoin as the broader crypto market digests the expiry event. The divergence between spot and max pain highlights the bearish tilt entering the settlement, a dynamic that could shape positioning for the next quarterly cycle. Post-expiry, traders will watch for directional cues as the market resets for the third quarter, with the $60,000 to $65,000 range emerging as the near-term battleground.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Forget max pain. Bitcoin is well below the $72,000 magnet ahead of $10 billion options expiry[2] Bitcoin volatility looks cheap as $10 billion options settlement nears: Crypto Daily[3] Bitcoin volatility looks cheap as $10 billion options settlement nears[4] Bitcoin Faces Volatility Test as $10 Billion of Options Near Expiry[5] Bitcoin’s US$10bil options expiry risks deepening selloff
