Key Takeaways: Gold is gaining strength against Bitcoin as BTC remains under pressure near long-term support, with the BTC/Gold ratio pointing to continued gold outperformance.
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Bitcoin tests $65K support as gold outperforms on Fed rate uncertainty
Bitcoin traded near $65,829 on June 17, testing support as gold rebounded above $4,350, widening the BTC/Gold ratio divergence ahead of the Fed's rate decision.
"Long-term holders now control 79% of Bitcoin's circulating supply, an all-time high that reflects continued accumulation," Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33, said. The figure is part of a pattern where supply tilts toward long-term holders as markets approach troughs.
The recovery from June lows has been meaningful. BTC hit $59,130 during the worst of the institutional sell-off and has since recovered nearly 12%. Three signals supported the rebound: ETF inflows returned with $85.8 million on June 16 after 13 consecutive days of net redemptions that drained $4.4 billion; Strategy resumed buying, adding 3,137 BTC for $202 million across two purchases; and whales withdrew over 11,000 BTC from exchanges ahead of the Fed decision.
The outstanding variable is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first press conference at 2:30 PM ET. CME FedWatch data shows a 97.4% probability of a hold at 3.50-3.75%, but the dot plot and Warsh's tone on inflation will determine the next leg. A dovish lean could push BTC through $67,000 toward $68,500, while a hawkish tone risks a retest of $64,350 support and potentially $60,630.
Gold's Divergence Reflects a Different Macro Calculus
Gold slipped to a six-month low of $4,023 on June 11 before rebounding above $4,350 as Washington and Tehran signaled an interim arrangement to halt hostilities. The swings reflect the path of US rates transmitted through oil and inflation. The May CPI print confirmed headline inflation at 4.2% year-on-year, the highest since April 2023, driven largely by Hormuz-linked energy costs. China extended its gold reserve accumulation to 19 straight months, and the World Gold Council reports that 45% of global reserve managers intend to add to gold holdings over the next year.
On-Chain Data Points to Accumulation, Not Capitulation
Only 218,421 BTC aged two years or more had been reactivated in 2026 as of June 6 — a near-historic low. The only year with lower reactivation by the same date was 2012. Wintermute analysts confirmed in a June 10 note that long-term investors had begun accumulating at lower price levels. The RSI sitting below 40 indicates the market retains upside room heading into today's decision.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Gold Vs. Bitcoin: Gold Outperforms as BTC Tests Long-Term Support[2] Bitcoin’s Recovery Checklist: ETF Inflows, Whale Moves, and the Fed — Where US Crypto Markets Stand on June 17[3] 79% of Bitcoin Supply Now Locked by Long-Term Holders. Analyst Sees Bear Market Nearing Exhaustion[4] Bitcoin Price Prediction: Andrew Tate Liquidated for 108 Times, Now He Doubles Down With 40x BTC Long[5] Gold's next test is the US Fed, as Kevin Warsh holds his first FOMC
