Bitcoin trades 15% below on-chain fair value as selling pressure eases

Bitcoin traded at $64,180 as of 18:00 UTC on June 18, holding 15% below its on-chain fair value of $77,200 after a June selloff pushed prices to multi-month lows.

"The deceleration in Realized Cap declines and the improvement in order book composition are signs that the worst of the sell-off may be behind the market," Glassnode said in its latest weekly report.

Bitcoin's Realized Cap — a metric that values each coin at its last on-chain move — declined 1.45% over the past 90 days but slowed to just 0.18% in the last seven days as capital outflows have nearly stalled. On Binance, the spot order book depth imbalance shifted to 0.8, with buy-side liquidity exceeding resting sell orders by the widest margin since December 2025, according to Glassnode. The improvement in spot liquidity comes as U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $85.8 million in net inflows on June 14, led by BlackRock's IBIT with $57.7 million, ending a five-session outflow streak that pulled $727.4 million from the products.

The divergence between improving on-chain fundamentals and persistent price weakness leaves Bitcoin at a crossroads. A sustained move above the short-term holder cost basis of $72,600 would signal renewed demand, while a break below the 200-week moving average at $62,358 — a level that has historically delivered median returns of 113 percent over the following year, according to Kraken — could trigger a deeper capitulation.

Short-Term Holders Remain Underwater

Bitcoin's price also trades below the average on-chain purchase price for short-term holders — addresses that have held coins for less than 155 days — which Glassnode reports at $72,600. This cohort is now sitting on unrealized losses, a condition that has historically preceded either accumulation or capitulation depending on broader market sentiment.

The current episode marks the second wave of panic selling in 2026, according to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., who noted that realized losses in this wave are "almost twice as low" as February's event. The milder loss realization suggests fewer investors are choosing to sell at a loss despite similar price levels.

ETF Flows Show Cautious Recovery

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a five-session outflow streak on June 14 with $85.8 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock's IBIT at $57.7 million and Fidelity's FBTC at $18 million, according to market flow data. The rebound did not erase the week's damage — the funds still finished with about $315.8 million in net redemptions — but it marked the first positive daily print after sustained selling.

IBIT's net assets of $48.7 billion now sit roughly $13.4 billion below its $62.1 billion in cumulative net inflows, a gap that has widened sharply from $3.7 billion in May as Bitcoin's price declined. The widening gap reflects the mark-to-market impact of Bitcoin's drop on a fund that attracted heavy inflows at higher price levels.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.