Bitcoin's RHODL ratio hits 4.5 in a signal that historically marked cycle lows

Nina Volkov

·Apr 17 2026, 18:06

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Key Takeaways:

Bitcoin's RHODL ratio reached 4.5, the third-highest level in its history, following a 50% market correction.
Historically, higher RHODL ratio values of 5 and 7 in 2015 and 2022 respectively have coincided with major market cycle lows.
The indicator suggests a dominance of long-term holders, a condition that often precedes a new accumulation phase before a major uptrend.

Bitcoin’s Realized HODL (RHODL) ratio registered a value of 4.5 on April 17, 2026, an extreme level that has historically signaled a bottoming process for the cryptocurrency after major price declines.

The reading, reported by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, places the metric at its third-highest point ever recorded. It reflects a market dominated by long-term holders who have weathered a recent 50% price correction, a dynamic that often removes short-term speculative froth.

Only two other periods have seen the RHODL ratio climb higher: a reading of 5 in 2015 and a peak of 7 in 2022. Both of these instances are now widely recognized by analysts as corresponding to bear market cycle lows for Bitcoin, which were followed by sustained bull runs. The ratio quantifies the relationship between the value of coins held by recent buyers versus long-term holders.

If this historical pattern holds, the 4.5 reading could indicate that selling pressure is exhausted and a new accumulation phase is underway. Investors will be watching to see if this on-chain signal translates into a sustained price floor, potentially setting the stage for the next major market uptrend. The Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio will also be a key metric to watch for signs of returning risk appetite.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.