Key Takeaways:
The Federal Aviation Administration is expected to certify Boeing's 737 MAX 10 before the end of 2026, a milestone that would unlock deliveries for more than 1,200 aircraft on order globally and clear the last major regulatory hurdle for the planemaker's largest single-aisle variant.
"We strongly believe it will happen this year," Tiago Faierstein, director-president of Brazil's National Civil Aviation Agency (ANAC), said in an interview on the sidelines of the IATA Annual General Meeting in Rio de Janeiro on June 8. ANAC, which is part of the Certification Management Team alongside the FAA, European and Canadian regulators, will work quickly to validate the decision locally for Brazilian operators including Gol, which is counting on the MAX 10 for its growth plans.
FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford said on May 28 that the agency expects to certify the MAX 7 first, targeting August 2026, followed by the MAX 10 before year-end, with no outstanding issues preventing approval. Boeing has completed roughly 80% of certification flight tests and redesigned the engine anti-ice system that had delayed both variants after the original configuration risked overheating inlet inner barrels during prolonged icing. The stretched MAX 10, measuring 43.8 meters in length — about 1.6 meters longer than the MAX 9 — also required a semi-levered main landing gear that extends 241 millimeters upon rotation to prevent tail strikes, creating a unique certification path.
The certification timeline converges with Boeing's most concrete production milestone in months. The company will open a fourth 737 MAX assembly line — the North Line at Paine Field in Everett, Washington — on July 6, CEO Kelly Ortberg confirmed on June 5. The first aircraft to move through the line will be a MAX 10. Boeing reached a production rate of 47 jets per month in late May after the FAA approved an increase from 42, following the agency's cap on output imposed after the January 2024 Alaska Airlines door-plug incident. The company targets 52 jets per month in early 2027, constrained by supply-chain performance including engine deliveries from CFM International's LEAP-1B program.
For airlines, the stakes are substantial. WestJet has six MAX 10s on the tarmac awaiting delivery, CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech said at the IATA meeting, with Boeing's delivery schedule beginning in December. The Calgary-based carrier holds orders for 97 MAX 10s and 20 MAX 8s, and placed a record order for 60 additional MAX 10s and seven 787-9s in late 2025. Southwest Airlines, with approximately 289 MAX 7 orders, expects to begin operations in early 2027. Boeing's total backlog reached a record $695 billion in the first quarter of 2026, including more than 6,100 unfilled commercial aircraft orders worth $576 billion.
The last time Boeing faced a comparable certification bottleneck — the original MAX grounding from March 2019 to November 2020 after two fatal crashes — the company incurred more than $20 billion in costs and lost market share to Airbus. This time, the regulatory path is converging with a production recovery that Ortberg has described as under "the whole world's watching" scrutiny. The FAA's gradual lifting of production caps, the opening of the Everett line, and the completion of the anti-ice redesign all point to a coordinated resolution in the second half of 2026. If the MAX 10 receives its type certificate by December, first deliveries to customers including WestJet and Gol would follow in early 2027, giving Boeing its first new narrowbody variant to enter service since the MAX 8 and MAX 9 were cleared to fly again six years ago.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
