The CFTC's approval of Novig marks the third federally regulated sports prediction exchange in as many weeks, intensifying a battle for market share among at least five platforms.
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CFTC approves Novig as 5 prediction market platforms vie for dominance
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission approved Novig's application to operate as a designated contract market Tuesday, adding a third federally regulated sports prediction exchange to a field already dominated by Kalshi's $3.38 billion in weekly volume.
"We're really rendering sportsbooks obsolete by cutting out the middle man," Jacob Fortinsky, chief executive officer of Novig, said in an interview. The platform matches traders peer-to-peer rather than acting as counterparty to wagers, making money from trading activity rather than customer losses.
Novig joins ProphetX, which received CFTC approval a week earlier, in a market where Kalshi set a daily record of $1.2 billion in trading volume Saturday. Kalshi's weekend volume of $3.38 billion was 2.4 times Polymarket's $1.41 billion and more than 25 times Robinhood's Rothera exchange at $131.4 million, according to Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley. Kalshi's volume rose 35 percent month over month, while Polymarket's climbed 33 percent.
The prize is a market that could scale nationally under federal oversight rather than state-by-state gaming licenses. Kalshi is already available in more than 40 states, while traditional sportsbooks operate in roughly half that number. The CFTC has proposed rules generally allowing sports event contracts while restricting categories tied to injuries, officiating decisions and high school sports.
Novig brings a $500 million valuation and more than $105 million in total capital raised, including a $75 million Series B in February led by Pantera Capital. The company says it has processed more than $5 billion in cumulative volume and more than $8 billion in annualized volume. It will maintain a minimum age of 21 and operate under the same CFTC framework as Kalshi, which allows users as young as 18.
The competition extends beyond exchanges. Betr, the gaming company co-founded by Jake Paul, acquired an introducing broker to launch prediction markets powered by Polymarket. Crypto.com is providing exchange infrastructure for FanDuel's event-contract offering. DraftKings reported its predictions product had its biggest weekend yet, with customer growth exceeding 200 percent week over week.
JB Mackenzie, Robinhood's head of prediction markets, described the environment to CNBC as a "supercycle," pointing to a packed sports calendar running from the World Cup through NFL season and midterm elections, plus a pipeline of companies applying for DCM status.
The legal landscape remains contested. Multiple states and tribes are suing Kalshi, arguing the platform facilitates unlicensed gambling. The CFTC filed its own suit this week against New Mexico to defend federal oversight of prediction markets. CFTC Chair Michael Selig defended the agency's approach, telling CNBC the commission is looking to onshore products being developed internationally under robust regulation.
Fortinsky argues sports trading should be treated as a legitimate asset class. "Sports is just as legitimate of an asset class as crypto, as other types of futures," he said. The question for Novig, ProphetX and the next wave of entrants is whether they can create enough differentiated liquidity and consumer trust before the biggest exchanges, sportsbooks and brokers define the market for them.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Novig wins CFTC approval as competition intensifies in sports prediction markets[2] Novig receives CFTC approval, expanding sports prediction market competition[3] CFTC chair Selig defends decision to approve ‘perps’ in U.S.[4] Kalshi Promo Code SDS: Get a $10 Bonus for Prediction Markets (June 2026)
