Citigroup Cuts Bitcoin Target to $112,000 on Regulatory Headwinds
On March 17, Citigroup sharply reduced its 12-month price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, signaling rising caution from Wall Street. The bank cut its Bitcoin forecast to $112,000 from a previous $143,000 and lowered its Ethereum target to $3,175 from $4,304. The move reflects concerns that delays in U.S. crypto legislation will curb institutional investment.
Regulatory catalysts will drive further adoption and flows but the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing.
— Alex Saunders, Citi strategist.
Citigroup outlined a potential downside scenario where macro pressures could push Bitcoin to as low as $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. The bank's more pessimistic outlook follows a difficult start to the year for the digital asset market.
Ethereum ETFs Bleed $1.2B as Prices Fall 30% YTD
The revised price targets align with significant year-to-date losses for the top two cryptocurrencies. As of mid-March, Bitcoin's price has declined 20% in 2026, while Ethereum has fallen a steeper 30%, currently trading around $2,000 after hitting an all-time high near $4,950 in August 2025.
This price slide corresponds with a notable pullback from institutional products. Ethereum-based ETFs experienced approximately $1.2 billion in net outflows during the first two months of 2026. This trend caused total assets in Ethereum ETFs to shrink from $20.4 billion in mid-January to $11.8 billion by mid-February, a drop driven by both withdrawals and the falling price of ETH.
CLARITY Act Delays Cast Shadow Over Market Recovery
The primary driver for Citigroup's bearish adjustment is the stalled progress of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate. This proposed legislation is seen as critical for providing the legal framework needed for broader institutional adoption. Data from prediction market Polymarket shows the odds of the act passing in 2026 have fallen to just 60%, reflecting growing uncertainty.
These regulatory headwinds create a challenging environment for Ethereum, even as it prepares for two major protocol upgrades, Glamsterdam and Hegota, scheduled for 2026. While these upgrades aim to increase transaction throughput and lower costs, their potential market impact may be muted until a clearer regulatory picture emerges in the U.S.
