CLARITY Act Passage Odds Jump to 70% After Stablecoin Deal
The probability of the U.S. passing comprehensive crypto legislation this year has climbed to 70% on prediction markets after a significant breakthrough on the CLARITY Act. Key senators and the White House have reportedly forged an "agreement in principle" on rules governing stablecoin yields, resolving a month-long standoff that had stalled the bill. According to a Politico report, Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks reached a tentative deal with the administration, clearing the primary obstacle for the bill's advancement.
This development sharply increases the likelihood of establishing a formal regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States. The deal addresses the most contentious provision in the bill, which has pitted the traditional banking sector against the crypto industry. Following the news, odds on Polymarket for the CLARITY Act to be signed into law in 2026 rose from depressed levels to as high as 70%.
Compromise Aims to End Banking and Crypto Standoff
The agreement navigates the central conflict between financial incumbents and digital asset innovators. The banking lobby has consistently opposed stablecoin yields, warning that such products could trigger a "widespread deposit flight" from traditional savings accounts. Conversely, crypto firms like Coinbase have argued that the ability to offer rewards on stablecoin balances is crucial for product innovation and competitiveness. The stalemate had previously led Coinbase to pull its support for the bill.
The new language reportedly strikes a delicate balance between these competing interests. Senator Alsobrooks stated the goal is to allow the U.S. to "protect innovation, but also give us the opportunity to prevent widespread deposit flight." While the specific terms are being vetted with industry stakeholders, the compromise signals a move away from the blanket ban on yields that banks had sought. Senator Tillis confirmed they are in a "good place" but must still review the text with the industry, which is a key party to any final deal.
April Markup Puts Bill on Path for Year-End Passage
With the stablecoin yield issue largely resolved, the CLARITY Act is on track for a legislative markup in April, a critical step before it can be considered by the full Senate. Senate Banking Committee member Cynthia Lummis previously predicted an April markup and stated that lawmakers were targeting a year-end passage for the bill. According to Senate Banking Chair Tim Scott, a draft of the compromise proposal is expected by the end of this week.
While this agreement marks a major step forward, the legislative process is not complete. Once the stablecoin issue is finalized, other aspects of the bill, including rules for decentralized finance (DeFi), may become new points of contention. However, removing the primary roadblock provides significant momentum for establishing the first comprehensive crypto regulatory framework in the U.S. before the end of the year.
