Crypto crash liquidation data gap contradicts $18B Solana claim

Solana Research Institute's $18 billion liquidation claim for the Oct. 10, 2025 crash does not reconcile with public records showing Binance pricing failures, on-chain auto-deleveraging and a disclosure gap the FCA has yet to close.

Amberdata's six-exchange analysis put the crash's 14-hour liquidation total at $9.89 billion, including $6.93 billion in the 40 minutes from 20:50 to 21:30 UTC, the data provider said. The European Securities and Markets Authority separately cited market estimates of about $19 billion in automated derivatives liquidations for the day.

Solana Research Institute, a Solana-aligned group, reported the $18 billion figure in an Aug. 14 post reviving a July open letter by Angus Scott to the FCA and other regulators. The group paired the total with a $3.21 billion peak in one minute at 21:15 UTC, a figure Amberdata confirmed, with 93.5 percent of that minute's liquidations coming from forced selling. The institute's July 23 letter provides no common venue universe or aggregation method that reconciles its total with Amberdata's $9.89 billion.

The gap matters because regulators need comparable records to separate routine solvency controls from venue-specific breakdowns. The FCA's June 2026 final cryptoasset framework requires UK platforms to publish post-trade information within one minute, but it does not mandate standardized cross-venue reporting of liquidation volumes, auto-deleveraging use or backstop losses.

Binance's $283 million compensation exposes venue design flaws

Binance's postmortem said its spot and futures matching engines and API trading remained operational, while some modules glitched after 21:18 UTC, internal transfers and Earn redemptions lagged, and local prices for collateral assets including USDe, BNSOL and WBETH dislocated after 21:36 UTC. The exchange said two compensation batches for users liquidated because of those depegs totaled about $283 million. ESMA said Binance's use of internal collateral prices enabled local depegs to erase collateral value, triggering forced liquidations and cascading selling. The cited Binance account gives no event-specific auto-deleveraging total.

On-chain venues showed stress too

Hyperliquid and Aave disclosed different risk engines and loss outcomes. A non-peer-reviewed study using public venue data reconstructed about $2.10 billion across 34,983 individual auto-deleveraging executions on Hyperliquid in roughly 12 minutes. A Chaos Labs report on Aave said some markets experienced five-block price-update delays, with about $180 million liquidated and roughly $500,000 in bad debt and expected deficit. Chaos Labs estimated that liquidation fees and SVR revenue left the protocol about $1.5 million net positive after the reported deficits.

The FCA framework applies to DeFi where a clear controlling person carries out regulated cryptoasset activity. Genuinely decentralized activity can fall outside the perimeter, with a separate consultation on DeFi guidance still expected. Solana Research Institute says its 33-page letter followed discussions between the FCA and Solana Foundation, although the available material contains no independent FCA confirmation. The letter covers seven domains, including identity, resilience, custody, market abuse, systemic risk and prudential capital.

Solana Research Institute's policy case is strongest when it focuses on the observability gap. The crash showed public records can make venue failures measurable, including failures on transparent platforms. Comparable event disclosures could help regulators distinguish routine solvency controls from venue-specific operational or pricing breakdowns without treating transparency itself as proof of safety.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.