Key Takeaways:
- Dogecoin spot netflow jumped 116% to $558,210 in 24 hours, per Coinglass
- DOGE closed July down 28.25%, its second red month since April
- August median return for DOGE is -5.17% across 13 years, the second worst seasonal month
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Dogecoin spot flows jump 116% as Fed, Clarity Act delays hit
Dogecoin spot netflow jumped 116% to $558,210 in 24 hours as the token closed July down 28.25%, its second red month since April.
Coinglass data shows spot inflows of $30.83 million against outflows of $30.27 million, yielding the positive netflow of $558,210, up 116.32% from the prior period.
DOGE fell to a low of $0.068 on July 31, closing with a 1.42% loss. The token is down 43% from its May high and is retesting a demand zone for the third time, with the lower Bollinger Band at $0.06881 as a potential floor, according to Coin Edition technical analysis. On Aug. 1, DOGE traded at $0.069, up 0.47% in 24 hours and 0.63% weekly, per CoinMarketCap.
Bitfinex analysts expect investors to stay cautious ahead of next week's US jobs report, the next major macro event after the Federal Reserve's July meeting. Markets are now pricing a 63% chance of a September rate hike, down from about 80% before the policy meeting, per CME FedWatch.
Flow Data Points to Distribution Risk
An increase in spot inflows can suggest coins being moved to exchanges, possibly to sell, while outflows suggest withdrawals, which is indicative of buying. The taker long-short futures market volume ratio continues to be bearish, indicating a downside bias.
Rare multi-timeframe TD Sequential buy signals fired simultaneously on DOGE's monthly, weekly, 3-day and daily charts, per Ali Charts. The alignment is the first in recent memory, though weak seasonality tempers the bullish signal.
August Seasonality and Regulatory Overhang
August has historically been bearish for Dogecoin. The meme coin has ended every August in the red except August 2021, which gained 34.29%, and August 2025, which was up just 1.77%. The median August return over 13 years is -5.17%, the second worst seasonal month in its calendar.
Delays in US market structure legislation, including the Clarity Act, may also weigh on prices. Regulatory certainty could help traditional finance transition to 24/7 trading and settlement, which would be positive for digital assets. The macro backdrop is mixed: gold is on track for its first monthly gain in five months, while the dollar dropped 2.4% in its biggest single-day fall since January 2023, per Reuters.
The combination of bearish flow signals, hawkish Fed policy, and regulatory uncertainty points to a choppy August for DOGE. A break below the $0.06881 Bollinger Band floor could accelerate selling, while a confirmed hold at the demand zone may set up a recovery toward the $0.075 resistance level.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Dogecoin Spot Flows Jump 116% as Fed Pressure and Clarity Act Delays Hit July Close[2] August Starts Hot: Dogecoin Spot Flows Up 116%, Is DOGE Rally Next?[3] Dogecoin Price Prediction August 2026: Is the Third Test of DOGE’s Demand Zone a Base or a Breakdown? - CryptoRank[4] How the Fed’s Interest Rate Decision Affects Bitcoin — The Answer May Surprise You - CCN.com[5] Gold on track to end four-month slump as investors weigh Fed signals - The Economic Times
