Dollar Tree raises profit forecast 12% as budget shoppers seek value

Dollar Tree raised its annual profit forecast on Thursday, sending shares up about 12% in premarket trading as budget-conscious shoppers sought affordable essentials.

"The results reflect strong demand from price-conscious consumers and the benefits of our cost-cutting initiatives," the company said in a statement.

The Chesapeake, Virginia-based discount retailer now expects fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings of $6.70 to $7.10 a share, up from its prior forecast of $6.50 to $6.90. The midpoint of $6.90 represents a roughly 3% increase from the previous midpoint of $6.70. The guidance excludes the impact of tariff refunds totaling about $110 million through May 26.

Rising living costs driven by higher gasoline prices linked to the war in Iran have pushed customers to prioritize value, boosting sales at dollar-store operators. Dollar Tree has also benefited from updated store layouts, better product selection and stronger seasonal displays, the company said.

The guidance raise indicates management expects demand for affordable essentials to remain strong through the year. Investors will watch Dollar Tree's second-quarter results for same-store sales data and margin trends.

Peer Dollar General may also benefit from the same consumer trade-down trend, as shoppers increasingly seek lower-priced alternatives. Higher-end retailers could face headwinds as inflation-conscious consumers shift spending toward discount channels.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.