Renewed US-Iran strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil toward $95 and the 10-year Treasury yield above 4.8%, driving Ethereum below $2,400 as traders weigh whether key EMA support holds for a $2,550 rebound or a slide to $2,200.
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Ethereum drops below $2,400 as US-Iran strikes lift oil, yields
Ethereum fell 1.9% to $2,372 on Sept. 2, breaking below $2,400 as renewed US-Iran fighting lifted oil and Treasury yields, weakening risk-asset demand.
The escalation near the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude close to $95 a barrel and drove the US 10-year Treasury yield above 4.8%, its highest level in nearly three years, according to Reuters. Higher yields reduce the appeal of assets such as cryptocurrencies because investors can earn stronger returns from government debt without comparable market risk. The dollar also strengthened as investors moved to defensive positions, adding another source of pressure for dollar-denominated assets such as ETH.
Derivatives activity accelerated the decline after ETH fell through short-term support. CoinGlass data showed about $94.2 million in Ethereum futures positions were liquidated over 24 hours, with open interest near $32.48 billion and futures trading volume at roughly $54.43 billion. The one-week liquidation heatmap shows ETH moved through several leveraged-long clusters between $2,400 and $2,360, with further liquidity visible below around $2,350-$2,320.
The first major support range sits between $2,350 and the 20-day average near $2,299. A daily close below that area could expose $2,200, the next downside target flagged by analyst Ted Pillows if ETH fails to hold above its 50-week exponential moving average. On the upside, ETH must first reclaim $2,400, with a break above the $2,500-$2,550 resistance zone weakening the bearish setup.
Oil, yields climb as US-Iran strikes resume
The Sept. 2 decline extended a pullback from the Aug. 27-28 highs near $2,510, leaving ETH about 5.5 percent below the upper end of that range. Sellers pushed the token through the $2,400 psychological level that had limited several declines during the previous two weeks. The 4-hour chart shows Ethereum formed a series of lower highs after its final attempt to regain $2,500 on Aug. 31, with selling accelerating on Sept. 2 as the latest 4-hour candle opened near $2,418 before falling as low as $2,356.
US monetary policy added to the uncertainty. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in July, missing the 55.2 market forecast though still showing expansion above the 50 threshold. Persistent price pressures and rising energy costs have increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its Sept. 16 meeting, with markets assigning a probability of roughly 68 percent to a rate increase, Reuters reported.
The decline has not erased Ethereum's broader August recovery. ETH remains above the daily 20-day simple moving average at $2,299, as well as its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages at approximately $2,054, $1,903, and $2,030, respectively. Holding above those averages means the medium-term structure remains stronger than before Ethereum's August breakout, although the short-term trend has weakened.
EMA support decides next leg toward $2,550 or $2,200
Ethereum's daily relative strength index fell to 59.46 after moving above the overbought threshold during the August rally. The reading remains above the neutral 50 level but is trending lower, showing bullish momentum has cooled. Shorter-term indicators are less constructive: the 4-hour moving average convergence divergence line stood near minus 13.66, below its signal line near minus 5.58, with the histogram negative at approximately minus 8.08. The Awesome Oscillator dropped to minus 45.49, supporting the bearish signal from the 4-hour price structure.
Larger liquidation concentrations sit above the market near $2,480-$2,510, while the strongest visible overhead cluster is close to $2,540-$2,560. A recovery toward those zones could force some short positions to close, but ETH would first need to regain $2,400 and reverse the lower-high structure on its 4-hour chart.
Crypto analyst Crypto XLARGE separately pointed to Ethereum's performance against Bitcoin, noting the ETH/BTC monthly candle closed above its 20-month moving average. The analyst said confirmation requires the average to become support, with potential ETH/BTC targets at 0.050 and 0.088 if the breakout holds.
For US investors, oil prices, Treasury yields, and expectations for the September Federal Reserve decision remain the immediate external drivers. Continued escalation between the US and Iran could keep pressure on Ethereum, while a decline in energy prices or rate-hike expectations may help ETH defend the $2,300 area.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
