Key Takeaways
Ethereum (ETH) is trading near $2,280 as its chart structure converges with a rare bearish signal on the Bitcoin Dominance index, a technical setup that has historically triggered a market-wide “altseason.”
The potential for a major rotation into altcoins is being closely watched after analyst Matthew Hyland highlighted a monthly “death cross” developing on the Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart. “The signal has appeared only twice before in the asset’s history,” Hyland noted, with both the July 2016 and January 2021 events followed by sharp drops in dominance and aggressive rotations into altcoins.
Data shows Ethereum trading within an ascending parallel channel, with a clean reclaim of the channel’s midline opening the door for a 50% measured move toward $3,430. Heavy accumulation is shown by the Visible Range Volume Profile (VRVP) near $2,050, which now serves as primary support. The $3,430 target is reinforced by a separate fractal analysis from trader CryptoKaleo, who sees a pattern mirroring a 2025 consolidation that resolved with a fast move higher. For Bitcoin Dominance, a rejection from the key 61% resistance level would align with the death cross thesis, putting a downside target of 49.23% in play.
A decisive move in the coming weeks hinges on these two trigger points. A rejection of the 61% level on the BTC.D chart would likely fuel a rally in Ethereum and other altcoins, confirming the altseason thesis. Conversely, a clean break above 61% for Bitcoin Dominance could signal continued strength for Bitcoin, potentially delaying a broader altcoin rally and keeping capital focused on the market leader.
Ethereum’s price action has been guided by an ascending parallel channel since February. While the token broke below the channel’s midline on April 27, a move that often signals bearish continuation, the breakdown occurred on contracting volume. This suggests a lack of conviction from sellers and leaves the door open for a reversal.
The primary upside target, derived from the height of the channel, sits at $3,430. Before that, bulls would need to clear overhead resistance at $2,750, a prior swing high. The confluence of the channel’s measured move and CryptoKaleo’s independent fractal analysis strengthens the case for the $3,430 zone as a defined objective for bulls.
The Bitcoin Dominance chart, which measures Bitcoin's market capitalization relative to the total crypto market, is stalling at a critical juncture. After breaking down from a multi-year ascending channel in August 2025, it consolidated before pushing up to test the 61% resistance level. This level is now the line that could decide the next macro move for the entire crypto market.
A rejection here, aligning with the monthly death cross signal, would target the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level at 49.23%. Such a drop would imply a significant flow of capital from Bitcoin into altcoins, with Ethereum, as the largest altcoin, being a primary beneficiary.
However, not all analysts are convinced of Bitcoin's weakness. Crypto YouTubers Carl Runefelt and David Wulschner recently argued that Bitcoin’s floor may already be in at $60,000, citing a lack of speculative euphoria in the last cycle. This "apathy top" thesis, also echoed by analyst Benjamin Cowen, suggests Bitcoin could hold its ground, challenging the narrative of an imminent altseason.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
