Ethereum repeats historic pattern against Bitcoin after 14 straight lower closes

Ethereum's ETH/BTC pair has returned to a momentum zone that preceded a rally above $4,000 the last time it appeared.

Ethereum's ETH/BTC pair fell through 14 consecutive lower closes against Bitcoin, dragging the ratio to 0.02835 — a level that historically preceded a breakout above $4,000. The pair is now 35% below its August 2025 high of 0.0434, according to a chart shared by crypto analyst BLADE.

"The ETH/BTC RSI has returned to the same support zone that appeared around the February low, near the lower 30s on the indicator," BLADE said. The analyst noted that the most recent red candle on the pair turned into a doji candlestick, signaling indecision, while the current candle is printing green.

The ETH/BTC pair was trading above 0.0313 in April before sellers pushed it below 0.027 by May. The 14 consecutive lower closes marked the longest such streak since the pair's decline from its August peak. Ethereum's underperformance against Bitcoin comes as broader market weakness dragged both assets lower, with BTC falling below $70,000 and ETH slipping under $2,000 in the past 24 hours.

The last time ETH/BTC visited this momentum support zone in February, Ethereum began outperforming Bitcoin within weeks, eventually pushing ETH above $2,450 and later to its all-time high of $4,946. For the pattern to repeat, the pair needs to stop printing lower closes and reclaim the breakdown zone, which would signal capital rotation back into Ethereum.

ETH/BTC at a Crossroads

The ETH/BTC pair's decline has been compounded by broader macro pressures. Institutional outflows from Bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds reached $1.42 billion last week, the third consecutive week of outflows exceeding $1 billion, according to Sosovalue data. The selling has weighed on the entire crypto market, with Ethereum also facing headwinds from its weakening against the tech-heavy QQQ index, where the ETH/QQQ ratio fell to 2.66 — its lowest since January 2021.

Ethereum's technical setup on its dollar pair reflects similar fragility. The token broke below a rising daily channel that had guided price action since February, according to analyst TraderJB. ETH now needs to reclaim the $2,111 area to revive the recovery structure, with an upside target near $2,676.32 if the channel is regained. Failure to hold above $1,954.87 would invalidate the bullish setup.

What a Reversal Would Mean

If Ethereum repeats the February pattern, the implications extend beyond a single token. A sustained ETH/BTC reversal would signal capital rotation out of Bitcoin dominance and into altcoins, potentially reigniting the broader altcoin market. Ethereum's all-time high of $4,946, reached after the last similar ETH/BTC setup in August 2025, provides a reference point for the upside potential if momentum shifts.

The immediate test is whether the pair can break its streak of lower closes and reclaim the 0.027 level. A daily close above that threshold would provide the first confirmation that the pattern is playing out again.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.