A failed bearish technical pattern, dubbed a 'kiss of death,' is being interpreted as a bullish signal for Bitcoin, according to analysis from Fidelity. The observation came as Bitcoin held its ground near $79,500 on May 13, showing resilience even as macroeconomic pressures mounted.
Fidelity's analysis suggests that the inability of sellers to push the price down despite overbought conditions and trendline resistance points to underlying strength. This view is supported by on-chain data showing new demand is absorbing profit-taking. Data from Santiment shows net realized profits reached $207.56 million as the price moved above $80,000, yet the asset sustained its level.
The market's structure was tested after a U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics report showed the Producer Price Index rose 1.4% in April, with the year-over-year figure hitting 6.0 percent. This hotter-than-expected inflation data briefly pushed Bitcoin below the $80,000 mark to an intraday low of $78,762, as it weakened the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The key battleground for Bitcoin is now the resistance zone between $83,000 and $85,000, which coincides with the 200-day moving average. A decisive break above this area could open a path toward the $89,000 technical checkpoint, while failure would shift focus back to support levels around $75,000 and the 100-day moving average near $72,000.
The primary headwind for Bitcoin came from the latest inflation figures. The Producer Price Index for final demand, excluding food and energy, rose 1.0% in April and 5.2% from a year earlier, adding to concerns that inflation is not cooling quickly enough for the Federal Reserve to ease policy. Following the data, CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed declining probabilities for near-term rate cuts, making cash and short-term debt more attractive relative to assets like Bitcoin.
Despite the macroeconomic pressure, Bitcoin’s 4% increase in 24-hour trading volume in early May suggests that activity is picking up as the price consolidates. The ability of the market to absorb the inflation news without a deeper breakdown is what prompted the bullish take from observers like Fidelity.
Several on-chain indicators support a constructive outlook. The weekly MACD indicator, a measure of momentum, flashed a bullish crossover on April 13, an event that has historically preceded strong rallies. While past performance is not indicative of future results, similar signals in October 2023 and May 2025 were followed by significant gains of 147% and 35%, respectively.
Furthermore, miner behavior suggests accumulation rather than distribution. The Miners’ Position Index (MPI) remains below zero, indicating that selling pressure from miners is subdued. This helped establish a floor price around the $60,000 lows in February and continues to provide stability. A move in the MPI above 0.5 would be the first signal of potentially increased selling that could slow a rally.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
