Google sets 2029 quantum deadline, putting $442B of Bitcoin at risk

Google accelerated its internal deadline to implement post-quantum cryptography (PQC) to 2029, a significant tightening of security roadmaps that sends a direct warning to cryptocurrency networks reliant on decades-old encryption. The new timeline, driven by faster-than-expected progress in quantum error correction, specifically targets the digital signature algorithms that secure every Bitcoin transaction.

"Quantum computers will pose a significant threat to current cryptographic standards, and specifically to encryption and digital signatures," Google’s security engineering team wrote in a recent announcement. The threat to digital signatures specifically "requires the transition to PQC prior to a cryptographically relevant quantum computer."

The accelerated timeline is a response to research that has drastically lowered the hardware requirements for breaking current encryption standards. While initial estimates suggested a quantum computer would need millions of qubits, a June 2025 Google paper indicated that just one million "noisy" qubits could break a widely used 2048-bit RSA key. Other research suggests the number of qubits required to break encryption could be as low as 100,000, a far cry from the millions once thought necessary.

The announcement puts a firm date on a systemic risk that could render an estimated 6.5 million Bitcoin, worth approximately $442 billion at current prices, vulnerable to theft. The situation creates a sharp contrast between the proactive, eight-year preparation by Ethereum and the current lack of a coordinated, funded plan for Bitcoin, whose decentralized governance structure makes rapid protocol upgrades a challenge.

Ethereum's 8-Year Head Start vs. Bitcoin's Silence

The two largest crypto networks present a case study in contrasting approaches to existential threats. Following a call to action from co-founder Vitalik Buterin in late 2024, the Ethereum Foundation has been executing a multi-year strategy to become quantum-resistant. This week, it launched pq.ethereum.org, a hub for an effort that began in 2018 and involves more than 10 client teams running weekly test networks.

Ethereum’s public roadmap details a migration that will span four separate hard forks, methodically replacing every component that relies on elliptic curve cryptography with quantum-resistant alternatives. The foundation's post-quantum, cryptography, and protocol architecture teams are working in a coordinated fashion toward the 2029 deadline that Google’s announcement now validates.

Bitcoin has no equivalent effort. While individual developers are researching proposals, there is no consensus-driven roadmap, no dedicated funding structure, and no agreed-upon timeline for a PQC migration. The network’s last major cryptographic upgrade, Taproot, took years of debate before its 2021 activation, highlighting the cultural and structural inertia that could become a liability when faced with a hard deadline.

The $442 Billion Question

The primary threat to Bitcoin comes from Shor's algorithm, a quantum computing method that can derive a private key from a public key. This would allow an attacker to spend any bitcoin from an address where the public key has been exposed on the blockchain. An estimated 6.5 million BTC reside in older "pay-to-public-key" (P2PK) addresses where this is the case, according to a study by csoonline.com.

Not all analysts agree on the scale of the immediate risk. A February report from CoinShares argued that only about 10,200 BTC are concentrated in legacy wallets in a way that could cause "appreciable market disruption" if stolen. The firm noted that another 1.6 million BTC in older address types are scattered across more than 32,000 wallets, making them less profitable targets for individual attacks.

However, the consensus among security experts at Google, the Ethereum Foundation, and the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is that the underlying cryptography is on a path to obsolescence. Google is already rolling out the NIST-approved ML-DSA algorithm for digital signature protection in its Android 17 operating system.

"Worst in Class": A Bitcoiner's Warning

The divergence in strategy has drawn sharp criticism from within the Bitcoin community itself. Nic Carter, a prominent venture capitalist and co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, publicly called Bitcoin’s approach "worst in class" compared to Ethereum's.

"Elliptic curve cryptography is on the brink of obsolescence," Carter wrote on X. "Whether it's 3 or 10 years, it's over and we need to accept that."

Carter praised Ethereum’s "best in class" strategy, describing a network that set a top strategic priority and is executing a detailed public roadmap without fear. He contrasted this with Bitcoin, where he noted a single quantum-related proposal has "received zero buy-in from top devs" and there is "no coherent strategy, no roadmap." Carter, a self-described bitcoiner, said he was speaking out to "spur action," warning that the ETH/BTC exchange rate will begin to reflect the divergence in priorities if Bitcoin’s silence continues.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.