Increased immigration enforcement under the Trump administration is linked to job losses for both undocumented immigrants and U.S.-born workers, according to a new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research that challenges the premise that deportations create opportunities for American workers. The research found that for every six undocumented male workers who leave their jobs, one U.S.-born worker with a high school degree or less also loses a job.
“We are showing, using the best available real-time data on the second Trump administration, that heightened ICE activity has been really harmful for the labor market, not only for immigrant workers who remain in the U.S. but also for U.S.-born workers,” said Chloe East, a University of Colorado, Boulder economist and a co-author of the paper.
The study, which analyzed monthly government employment data between January and October 2025, found that employment among U.S.-born men with less formal education fell by 1.3% in areas that saw a doubling of Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests relative to their non-citizen population. In those same areas, the employment of undocumented workers declined by 4%, translating to approximately 7,500 fewer men in jobs.
The findings suggest that immigrant and U.S.-born workers are often complements in the labor market, not substitutes. Industries that experienced the largest negative effects from ICE arrests on undocumented workers were also where U.S.-born male workers saw job losses. This dynamic was previously highlighted in a summer industry survey where 28 percent of construction firms reported being negatively affected by the administration's immigration enforcement. The White House has disputed the study's conclusion, stating that the president's agenda is to create jobs for American workers.
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