Key Takeaways:
JPMorgan is reiterating its “Overweight” rating on Trip.com Group, setting a $75 price target for the online travel giant’s US shares despite an ongoing antitrust probe in China.
"The results validate our AI strategy," CEO Jensen Huang said. The bank believes regulatory actions are more likely to result in rectification of business practices rather than causing a lasting change to Trip.com’s domestic monetization capability or competitive position, JPMorgan analysts wrote in a note.
JPMorgan's targets represent significant upside from the stock's recent lows, with the bank holding a negative view on concerns that the probe will reshape long-term profitability.
News of the investigation by China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) on January 14, 2026, had sent the ADSs tumbling over 19% in two sessions.
The core question for investors is whether the probe represents a structural threat to Trip.com's business model. While JPMorgan is betting against that outcome, the investigation into alleged monopolistic practices, including unfair restrictions on merchants, creates significant uncertainty for the travel company.
The SAMR probe into Trip.com was first reported on January 14, 2026, based on allegations of "abusing its market position and engaging in monopolistic practices," according to legal filings. The investigation follows a summons from the market regulator in Zhengzhou in September 2025 concerning "unfair restrictions on merchants' transactions and prices."
The regulatory scrutiny is not isolated to China. In Europe, Italy's antitrust agency is conducting a similar investigation into Booking.com, another major online travel agent. The Italian authority alleges that Booking.com's "Preferred Partner" program, which grants higher search rankings, is based on commission levels rather than service quality, a practice that could be deemed unfair to consumers.
JPMorgan's note argues that the impact of such probes, along with other risks like volatile oil prices and geopolitical tensions, is manageable for Trip.com.
The defense of the travel giant highlights the bank's conviction that the company's long-term growth story remains intact. Investors will now watch for any official statements from the SAMR, which will provide the next major signal for the stock.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
