Nvidia Earnings to Test AI Rally as 1 Index Flashes Tech Bubble Warning

Nvidia Corp.’s upcoming earnings report is shaping up to be a critical stress test for the artificial intelligence-driven bull market, as technical indicators in the semiconductor sector flash their most extreme warning since the dot-com bubble. The market’s reaction to the May 20 report will test the durability of a rally that has become increasingly concentrated in a handful of mega-cap technology stocks.

The primary concern stems from the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), which has surged approximately 70% since its lows in late March. According to a report from Goldman Sachs TMT specialist Peter Callahan, the index is now trading about 60% above its 200-day moving average. This level of deviation is a first since the peak of the internet bubble in 1999-2000, prompting Callahan to issue a "yellow light" warning on the sector's technical pressure despite strong underlying fundamentals.

Wall Street consensus calls for Nvidia to report revenue of $78.8 billion and earnings per share of $1.77 for the first quarter. However, investors will be more focused on the company’s forward guidance for the second quarter, for which analysts are forecasting around $86.6 billion in revenue. Supporting the bullish fundamental case, Nvidia's largest customers—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms, and Microsoft—are forecasting combined capital expenditures of more than $700 billion in 2026 to build out their AI infrastructure.

What is at stake is whether even a strong report from Nvidia can sustain momentum in a market showing signs of fatigue. The rally’s narrowness is a significant concern, with only about 52% of S&P 500 components showing positive returns year-to-date. Any disappointment in Nvidia’s guidance could trigger a rapid unwinding of bullish positions, not just in the chipmaker but across the broader market that has relied heavily on the AI narrative.

Options Market Signals Extreme Volatility

The options market is reflecting this tension, pricing in an implied post-earnings move of 6% for Nvidia’s stock. In a rare signal, both the stock's price and its implied volatility have been rising in tandem, indicating that traders are simultaneously chasing upside while paying a premium to protect against a sharp downturn.

Data from options analysis firm SpotGamma shows that while positioning is heavily skewed toward call options, there has been a notable increase in the purchase of large put option structures on the S&P 500 and semiconductor-related ETFs. This suggests that while many are betting on a continued rally, sophisticated investors are actively hedging against a potential market-wide correction triggered by Nvidia’s results. The sheer scale of bullish option positioning means any profit-taking or directional shift could be amplified.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.