Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin chips face a slight delay that could push the architecture's revenue contribution later than investors expected, KeyBanc said.
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Nvidia's Rubin chip faces slight delay as Q2 revenue hits $91 billion
Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform, the successor to Blackwell expected to power the next wave of AI data center buildouts, faces a modest timeline slip that may push its revenue contribution into late 2027, KeyBanc Capital Markets said.
"The Rubin ramp is shifting slightly to the right, which means investors may need to extend their patience on the next major product cycle," the KeyBanc analyst said in a note published Tuesday.
The delay comes as Nvidia reported fiscal first-quarter net income of $58.32 billion, up 210.63% year over year, on revenue of $81.61 billion that beat the $79.12 billion consensus by 3.16%. The data center segment alone generated more than $75 billion, up 92%, with networking revenue surging 199% to $14.8 billion. Management guided fiscal Q2 revenue to $91 billion, plus or minus 2%, with non-GAAP gross margin held at 75%.
The Vera Rubin architecture represents Nvidia's next major platform transition after Blackwell 300, and any delay extends the period during which the company relies on existing products to sustain its growth trajectory. Nvidia has $119 billion in supply commitments underwriting the Blackwell 300 ramp and the Rubin platform. Shares traded at $204.13, down about 12% from their May 20 filing-day close of $221.54, with a forward P/E of 23 times.
The "slight delay" characterization suggests the timeline shift is measured in months rather than quarters, according to the note. Nvidia has not publicly disclosed specific production or sampling dates for Vera Rubin, which is expected to use TSMC's advanced process nodes and CoWoS (chip-on-wafer-on-substrate) packaging technology.
The company's product roadmap momentum remains critical to its valuation. Nvidia generated $48.55 billion in free cash flow last quarter and returned roughly $20 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks. The board raised the quarterly dividend 25-fold to $0.25 per share and authorized an additional $80 billion in buybacks.
Competitors including Advanced Micro Devices and a growing roster of custom chip designers — from Amazon's Annapurna Labs to Google's Tensor Processing Unit team — are racing to offer alternatives to Nvidia's dominant H100 and Blackwell architectures. Any gap in Nvidia's product cadence creates an opening for rivals to win design slots at hyperscale data center operators.
"The buildout of AI factories, the largest infrastructure expansion in human history, is accelerating at extraordinary speed," Chief Executive Officer Jensen Huang said on the earnings call. The company's $119 billion in supply commitments underwrite both the Blackwell 300 ramp and the newly announced Vera Rubin platform.
Of the 61 analysts covering Nvidia, 58 rate it a buy or strong buy, with a consensus price target of $301.62 — implying roughly 48% upside from current levels. One analyst rates it a sell. The stock's forward PEG ratio of 0.616 suggests the market is pricing in continued earnings growth, though the Rubin delay introduces a new variable into that calculus.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
[1] Nvidia Faces 'Slight Delay' in Rubin Chip Rollout. What It Means for the Stock.[2] Nvidia Faces ‘Slight Delay’ in Rubin Chip Rollout. What It Means for the Stock.[3] The Market Cap for Jensen Huang's Nvidia Climbs Past $5 Trillion as Reports of a Kyber Delay Are Dismissed[4] Nvidia faces ‘slight delay’ in Rubin chip rollout. What it means for the stock.[5] NVIDIA Grew Revenue 3x This Year and Could Blow Past That Next Year: Is It Time To Buy Today?
