OpenAI, Anthropic and SpaceX seek $300 billion in AI IPO blitz

Three companies that have yet to turn a collective profit are seeking nearly $300 billion from public market investors — a test of whether the AI rally has room to run.

OpenAI confidentially filed for its US IPO on Monday, joining Anthropic and SpaceX in a trio of listings that could create nearly $4 trillion in combined market value and absorb $300 billion in new capital.

"The biggest question is whether the significant capital being deployed into AI and data-center infrastructure ultimately generates attractive returns," said Mona Mahajan, head of investment strategy at Edward Jones.

OpenAI, targeting a valuation of up to $1 trillion, loses about $1.22 for every $1 of revenue it generates, according to recent estimates, and plans to spend roughly $600 billion on compute infrastructure by the end of the decade. Anthropic, which filed its confidential S-1 on June 1, is nearing its first quarterly profit with an annualized revenue run rate of $47 billion, though its spending plans suggest that milestone may be temporary. SpaceX, pursuing a $75 billion offering at a $1.75 trillion valuation, is the outlier with proven profitability from its Starlink satellite business.

The three IPOs arrive as the S&P 500's ten largest tech companies account for about 35 percent of the index's total market value and three-month Treasury bills yield roughly 2.7 percentage points more than the S&P 500's dividend yield. Strong demand would catalyze a wave of late-stage listings, while failure of one or all three could trigger a major pullback in tech stocks over the second half of the year.

OpenAI's filing, disclosed in a blog post Monday, follows a week after Anthropic submitted its own confidential S-1 and days before SpaceX is set to begin trading. The ChatGPT-maker said it has not committed to any timing for the IPO, warning that "it may be a while because there are things we want to do that are likely easier as a private company."

The company's growth metrics are staggering by historical standards. OpenAI generated nearly $6 billion in revenue in the first quarter of 2026, up from about $1 billion in quarterly revenue at the end of 2024 — a growth rate roughly four times faster than Alphabet and Meta achieved during the internet and mobile eras. ChatGPT now counts more than 900 million weekly active users and 50 million consumer subscribers.

Yet the costs of maintaining that trajectory are equally unprecedented. OpenAI's $600 billion compute infrastructure plan, revised down from an initial $1.4 trillion target, means the company is not expected to reach profitability until 2030. Projects show it burning $85 billion in 2028 even after doubling sales.

Anthropic has emerged as the more capital-efficient rival. The company behind Claude Code raised $65 billion in its most recent funding round at a $965 billion valuation and recently locked in a $35 billion chip financing deal with Apollo and Blackstone. On secondary markets, Anthropic stock has surged to a $1 trillion valuation on Forge Global — a 123 percent year-to-date appreciation. OpenAI's secondary stock has risen roughly 11.3 percent over the same period.

"What OpenAI does not want is for the public market capital to exhaust itself," Gil Luria, managing director at D.A. Davidson, told Reuters. "Not only are SpaceX and Anthropic ahead of it in line to IPO, large public competitors could also raise tens of billions of dollars each in public market secondary issuances."

The $4 trillion question

The convergence of the three mega-IPOs within months represents the most consequential test of investor appetite for high-growth technology stocks in a decade. The global IPO market has raised $87.5 billion through May 2026 — the highest since 2021 — and these three offerings alone could reshape capital flows for years.

"If the first wave of marquee AI IPOs is successful, it could create important proof points for investor appetite, valuation support, and public-market receptivity," said Willy Lee, principal at SuRo Capital, who thinks the listings will "help catalyze a long-awaited IPO parade across the broader late-stage growth market."

The stakes extend beyond the three companies. Semiconductor stocks have risen more than 84 percent this year even after a 10 percent correction last week. Nvidia's $5 trillion market capitalization alone exceeds every stock market outside the US, China and Japan. A failed AI IPO could undermine the valuation thesis underpinning the entire AI supply chain.

"The opportunity is exciting, and the long-term growth potential may be underappreciated," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise. "But so is the risk that it takes longer for these stocks to find their footing than current valuations suggest."

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.