Russia's crude oil production fell by 460,000 barrels per day in April from a year ago to 8.8 million bpd, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday, as persistent Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries and ports disrupt the nation's energy sector.
"Since March, Ukraine has unleashed waves of drone strikes on some of Russia's biggest oil ports and attacked refineries in an effort to drain Moscow's war economy," the Paris-based agency said in its monthly report. The attacks have sent Russia's oil product exports tumbling by 340,000 bpd from March to just 2.2 million bpd in April, the lowest level recorded by the IEA.
The disruption to Russian supply is compounding a tighter global market, where the IEA notes that inventories are being depleted at a record pace. The agency now forecasts a global oil supply deficit of 3.9 million bpd in 2026, a significant revision from its previous estimate, assuming a gradual resumption of flows from the Strait of Hormuz. Total crude exports from Russia recovered slightly from March lows but remained below the 7.7 million bpd average seen before the recent wave of attacks.
The sustained pressure on one of the world's largest producers adds another layer of volatility to an oil market already contending with the war in Iran. The production cuts signal a tangible impact from the drone campaign on Russia's economic capabilities and are forcing a realignment of global energy flows, with new buyers in Egypt emerging for its Urals grade.
Russia Revises Forecasts Downward
Reflecting the impact of sanctions and drone attacks, Russia's own economy ministry has revised down its oil and gas production and export forecasts for 2026 through 2029. In its base case scenario, the ministry cut its 2026 oil and gas condensate production forecast to 511 million metric tons (approximately 10.22 million bpd), down from a previous forecast of 525.2 million metric tons.
Crude export forecasts were also lowered by 4.5 million tons for the current year. A more pessimistic scenario outlined by the ministry projects an even steeper decline in output to 497.2 million tons this year, with exports not expected to recover to 2025 levels even by 2029.
Global Supply Picture Tightens
The drop in Russian output contributes to a wider global supply squeeze. The IEA reported that the war in the Middle East is depleting global oil inventories at a record pace, with a drawdown of 246 million barrels in March and April alone.
The agency now sees world oil supply falling 3.9 million bpd in 2026, a sharp revision from its prior forecast of a 1.5 million bpd decline. This assumes that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for nearly 20 percent of global supply, begins to normalize in June. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has also noted significant production shut-ins across the Middle East, estimating a collective decline of 10.5 million bpd in April from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, further straining global capacity.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
