Key Takeaways:
Silver rose 0.94% to $76.34/oz on Tuesday, rebounding as uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks sustained safe-haven demand for precious metals.
"Continued tensions in Iran and risks in the Strait of Hormuz have added upside pressure to both prices and volatility in commodities," Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, said.
The metal traded at $75.63 at Monday's close and has gained 130.72% over the past 12 months from $33.09/oz, according to market data. Silver remains 34.97% below its 52-week high of $117.39/oz set earlier this year. Broad commodities have gained more than 20% year to date, based on the UBS CMCI Composite total returns index in US dollars.
The $78.25-$78.45 zone represents the immediate technical hurdle, combining the 100-period simple moving average with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from May's peak. A sustained break above that level could open the path toward $80.50, while a failure to hold above $71.81 would weaken the near-term structure.
The Relative Strength Index stood near 52, indicating mild momentum without strong directional conviction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator was slightly positive, suggesting a tentative stabilization, though price remains below the moving-average and Fibonacci confluence that has capped recent gains.
UBS projects further supply shortages for copper and aluminum over the medium term, while structural drivers such as electrification underpin long-term demand for industrial metals. The bank cut its year-end 2026 gold price forecast to $5,500/oz from $5,900/oz last week, citing persistent headwinds from elevated Treasury yields and sustained US dollar strength.
Brent crude oil hit a four-year high of $126/bbl on April 30 and was trading around $93/bbl at the time of writing, Staunovo noted. Oil product inventories are running low in various economies and could necessitate even higher prices to ration demand before stocks are refilled.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
