Key Takeaways:
SpaceX has surrendered every dollar of its post-IPO gains in five weeks, returning to its $135 offering price hours before the most consequential Starship test since going public.
SpaceX shares closed at $135.27 Wednesday, erasing all gains from the June 12 IPO that raised $75 billion, as traders braced for a Starship test flight that prediction markets give an 89% probability of ending in an explosion.
"The market is pricing in a binary outcome — either Starship works and the stock re-rates, or it doesn't and the selloff continues," said Brian Gesuale, analyst at Raymond James, who carries an $800 price target implying 491% upside.
The stock has fallen 29.73% over the past month and 8.79% in the past week, wiping out a post-IPO rally that briefly pushed the valuation past $2 trillion. Of 11 analysts covering SPCX, 7 rate it a Buy, 3 a Hold and 1 a Sell, with a consensus target of $242.22 — 79% above current levels. CFRA opened coverage at $115, below the IPO price.
The Starship Flight Test 13, launching from Boca Chica, Texas, during a 90-minute window opening at 6:45 p.m. ET, represents the first major operational test since the IPO. A successful flight would validate the V3 Starship design after May's test suffered engine outages on both the booster and the upper stage. A failure risks amplifying selling pressure on a stock already trading below its opening-day print.
The $135 Floor and the $800 Ceiling
The gap between where SpaceX trades and where its most bullish analyst sees it heading is among the widest in the US-listed space sector. Gesuale's $800 target implies a $10.5 trillion valuation, built on Starship achieving full reusability and SpaceX selling orbital AI compute capacity. The thesis depends on roughly 200 Starship launches per gigawatt for space-based data centers — a capability that does not yet exist.
More conservative estimates anchor closer to the consensus. The $242 average target assumes Starlink monetization and existing government contracts under the National Security Space Launch program will drive revenue growth without requiring Starship to reach its full design potential. SpaceX is now held by approximately 200 exchange-traded funds, creating structural buying demand that did not exist at the IPO.
A Treasury of 18,000 Bitcoin Adds Another Variable
SpaceX disclosed an 18,000 Bitcoin corporate treasury, a holding worth roughly $1.1 billion at current prices. The position ties the company's balance sheet to cryptocurrency volatility at a moment when the stock is already under pressure. A successful Starship flight could boost confidence in both the equity and the crypto strategy, while a failure could compound downside risk for investors exposed to both assets.
The launch itself will not attempt to recover the Super Heavy booster or the Starship upper stage — both are programmed for controlled splashdowns that will end in destruction regardless of flight performance. SpaceX's "fly, fail, fix" approach means even a mid-flight breakup counts as data collection rather than mission failure, though the distinction may be lost on retail investors who piled $70 billion into the IPO.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
