SpaceX slides 5.5% as second lockup frees 319 million shares

SpaceX shares fell 5.49% to $131.98 on Thursday as a second lockup expiration freed roughly 319 million shares for trading.

"Strong revenue and Starlink growth may not be enough to justify SpaceX's current valuation," Phillip Securities said in a note assigning a Sell rating and $75 price target, as the company continues to invest heavily in AI and infrastructure.

Thursday's unlock lands on SpaceX's 70th day as a public company, building on an earlier round two weeks ago that put roughly 912 million shares into circulation and lifted the public float from under 5% to more than 12%. The stock had rallied 4.17% to close at $145.84 on Monday after new 13F filings showed large institutions had taken multibillion-dollar positions, carrying shares back above the $135 IPO price.

More supply is coming. Another roughly 319 million shares unlock Sept. 9, with additional releases set for Sept. 24, Oct. 9 and Oct. 24, ahead of the last unlock — excluding founder shares — when the full 180-day restriction period ends Dec. 8. Despite the recent weakness, SpaceX carries a consensus Buy rating with an average price forecast of $226.08 across 43 analysts.

First Lockup's Fears Proved Overblown

The initial unlock two weeks ago was widely expected to trigger heavy selling, but the stock instead found its footing, helped by institutional accumulation disclosed in 13F filings. The question now is whether the second release — and the four that follow — behave differently as the float expands further. The first tranche lifted the tradable float from under 5% to more than 12%, and each subsequent release adds to the supply that must be absorbed.

Supply Pipeline Stretches Into December

Beyond Thursday's release, SpaceX faces a steady drip of unlocks through the fall. The Sept. 9 release matches Thursday's roughly 319 million shares, with additional tranches on Sept. 24, Oct. 9 and Oct. 24. The final unlock, excluding founder shares, arrives Dec. 8 when the full 180-day restriction period lapses.

The divergence between Phillip Securities' $75 target and the $226.08 consensus highlights the uncertainty around valuation. The gap between the consensus target and the current price implies roughly 71% upside, but that assumes the market absorbs the coming releases without further deterioration. For investors, the recovery's durability hinges on whether institutional demand — evidenced by the multibillion-dollar 13F positions — can offset the steady expansion of the tradable float. If the second lockup behaves like the first, the recent bounce may hold; if selling accelerates, the stock could retest its $105 low.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.