Tesla earnings preview: 3 numbers to watch this week

Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is set to report first-quarter earnings on April 22, with investors watching for updates on artificial intelligence projects amid a 27 percent year-over-year decline in the broader U.S. electric-vehicle market.

"Tesla is not valued based on how many cars it can sell this or next quarter," Fool analyst Emily Flippen said last month, noting the company is "valued on optionality."

Analysts expect Tesla to report earnings per share of 36 cents on $22.3 billion in sales, up from 27 cents and $19.5 billion a year ago. The company’s 358,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1 missed expectations of 370,000 and come as total U.S. EV market share fell to under six percent of new car sales.

With the stock down 11 percent year-to-date, the report’s focus shifts to progress on the robotaxi service and AI initiatives like the Terafab chip project, which bulls see as the key to future valuation.

The slowdown in the EV market follows the elimination of the $7,500 federal tax credit in September 2025, which pulled forward demand into the third quarter of last year. While most automakers saw EV sales plunge in the first quarter, Tesla increased its dominance, capturing 54.2 percent of the U.S. EV market, up from 43.2 percent a year prior, according to Cox Automotive.

Wall Street remains divided. Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois holds a "Hold" rating with a $350 price target, citing a potential gap between the company's vision and execution. Conversely, UBS analyst Joseph Spak recently upgraded the stock to "Hold" from "Sell," viewing Tesla as a leader in physical AI despite near-term demand challenges.

The earnings call will signal whether management can shift the narrative firmly toward its high-margin AI and autonomy projects to justify its valuation. Investors will look to the Q2 delivery report in July for the next major data point on vehicle demand.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.