XRP breaks above Bollinger Bands midline, ending 4-month slide

XRP rose 3.2% to $1.15 as of 07:30 UTC on July 5, breaking above the Bollinger Bands midline and entering the upper half of the price corridor for the first time since March, CoinGecko data show. The move officially shifts the token into a medium-term bullish zone, ending a slide that began in January.

"The Bollinger Bands midline breakout is a textbook signal that downside momentum has exhausted," according to the indicator's standard interpretation, which treats a move from below to above the 20-day moving average as a shift in trend direction. John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands indicator, recently highlighted a similar "W"-shaped reversal pattern on Bitcoin's daily chart, suggesting broader market structure may be turning.

XRP's daily trading volume surged to $1.7 billion from roughly $400 million in late June, CoinGecko data show, confirming buyer participation in the move. The token had fallen 57% from a January peak of $2.40 to a low of $1.02 in late June, dragged down by US-Iran geopolitical tensions that pushed oil prices higher and the Federal Reserve's signal that rate cuts were off the table while inflation remained elevated. Bitcoin dropped from about $90,000 in January to below $60,000 by early June over the same period, dragging the broader crypto market lower.

The breakout places XRP at a critical technical juncture. The token now faces resistance at $1.18 to $1.20, where a year-long falling wedge pattern's upper trendline converges with roughly 50 million tokens last bought at those levels, according to on-chain data. A daily close above that zone would confirm the wedge breakout and open the path toward $1.50, the pattern's measured target. On the downside, support sits at $1.06, where about 830 million tokens were last accumulated, with a break below $1.02 invalidating the wedge entirely and exposing a drop toward $0.85.

AI agent trading volume adds a new variable to XRP's recovery

A separate development may be amplifying the move. AI-driven trading agents have accounted for a growing share of XRP's spot volume in recent weeks, according to exchange data, adding a new demand source that did not exist during previous recovery attempts in January and May. While the exact share of AI-generated volume is not yet disclosed by most exchanges, the trend has drawn attention from traders monitoring whether algorithmic buying can sustain the breakout where human traders have failed twice this year.

XRP's relative strength index remains at 32 to 37, still in oversold territory and below the 50 threshold that would confirm momentum has turned bullish. The token's ability to hold above the Bollinger Bands midline in the coming sessions will determine whether this breakout marks a genuine trend change or another failed recovery in a year-long downtrend.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.