XRP defends $1 as CLARITY Act slips, CFTC steps in

XRP traded at $1.01 on Thursday, holding the psychological dollar level by a cent since the Senate skipped its CLARITY Act vote and left for recess. The token sits about 72 percent below its record high of $3.65, set July 17, 2025 — the same day the House passed the bill 294-134 with every Republican voting yes.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is not waiting for Congress. The agency holds its first Innovation Advisory Committee meeting August 20 in Washington under the title "Crypto's Regulatory Evolution: From Uncertainty to Clarity," with Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, Coinbase, Nasdaq and CME Group chiefs on the panel. Public comments close August 27.

The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill 15-9 in May, but Majority Leader John Thune never filed the cloture motion needed for a floor vote before recess. Senators return around September 14 with only 14 working days before midterm campaigning. Polymarket odds on the bill becoming law this year have fallen to 14 percent from 82 percent in February, while Kalshi, where the bet runs to mid-2027, prices a 41 percent chance.

The gap between a court ruling and a statute is what keeps cautious money away. Judge Analisa Torres ruled in July 2023 that XRP sold anonymously on exchanges was not an investment contract, though Ripple's direct sales to institutions broke registration rules and cost the company a $125 million penalty. The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP among 16 digital commodities in March. But an agency can rewrite its own interpretation; only a law gives permanence.

ETF demand has stalled while the bill waits

Spot XRP ETF inflows tell the same story. Grayscale and Franklin Templeton's funds took in $164.1 million combined on their first trading day in November, and first-month net inflows reached $643.92 million. By July, flows had collapsed to $27.29 million for the month, with exactly zero inflows on 10 of the first 17 trading days, according to SoSoValue data cited by BeInCrypto. Total assets across the seven funds slipped below $1 billion.

XRP ranks sixth by market value at $63.2 billion, yet the ETF bid has gone quiet while larger tokens gained. The token has dropped 2.9 percent over the past week and 8.7 percent over the past month. Technical support sits at $1.01, the level buyers have defended since late June, with the lower weekly band at $0.9572 if sellers push through.

What the CFTC can and cannot fix

The CFTC agenda asks a narrow question: what can the agency fix using powers it already holds? The SEC is moving in parallel, with commissioners voting Friday on proposed crypto offering rules for token fundraising. A separate tokenization exemption has slipped again, with negotiators still arguing over that part of the bill, according to Eleanor Terrett, host of the Crypto America podcast.

Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo argues innovation continues without legislation. For XRP, the sum is simple: agency rules can steady the market, but only a law can give institutions the certainty they have waited for since July 2025.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.