XRP hits $1 support as falling wedge signals 90% rebound potential

XRP's slide to $1 has triggered a falling wedge pattern and oversold MVRV readings that historically preceded rallies of 80% to 120%.

XRP fell to $1.00 on June 26, reaching a critical support level where a falling wedge pattern and oversold on-chain metrics point to a potential 90% rebound. The token has lost 62% from its January high of $2.63, dragged lower by hawkish Fed policy, escalating US-Iran tensions, and persistent outflows from US bitcoin-spot ETFs.

XRP's market-value-to-realized-value Z-Score has dropped to negative 0.8, a level that preceded the token's 2020 and 2023 macro bottoms, according to CryptoQuant data. The MVRV ratio, which compares market cap to realized cap, has historically signaled accumulation zones when falling below negative 0.5, with prior instances yielding returns of 80% to 120% over the following 8 to 12 weeks.

The falling wedge pattern on the daily chart, a typically bullish reversal formation, projects a measured move target near $1.90, implying roughly 90% upside from current levels. XRP is trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, with the 50-day EMA pulling further from the 200-day EMA — a configuration that typically precedes further downside before a reversal materializes. The token's 24-hour trading volume has climbed 34% to $8.2 billion, suggesting increased participation at the support level.

Macro Headwinds and ETF Flows

The broader macro environment remains a headwind. The Federal Reserve's January FOMC minutes, released Feb. 18, showed most committee members viewed the fed funds rate as close to neutral, reducing expectations for near-term rate cuts. The probability of a June rate cut fell to 62.1% from 63.4% following the release, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, US bitcoin-spot ETFs have recorded $2.39 billion in net outflows year-to-date, reflecting risk-off positioning across digital assets.

Geopolitical risk has also weighed on XRP, given its utility in cross-border payments. Axios reported on Feb. 18 that the Trump administration is closer to a major military conflict with Iran than most Americans realize, with potential strikes that could last weeks. During the Russia-Ukraine war's onset in February 2022, XRP fell 60% from $0.72 to a June low of $0.29.

Key Levels to Watch

A confirmed bounce at $1.00 would target the 50-day EMA near $1.50 as the first resistance, with a break above that level opening the path toward the pattern's $1.90 projection. The 200-day EMA near $2.00 represents the next major hurdle. A sustained move above both EMAs would confirm a bullish trend reversal and support the medium-term target of $2.50.

Failure to hold $1.00, however, risks a deeper correction toward $0.80, the next major support level last tested in November 2024. A break below $0.80 would invalidate the bullish wedge pattern and suggest further downside toward $0.60.

On the catalyst front, the US Senate's potential passage of the Market Structure Bill and continued demand for US XRP-spot ETFs — which have seen only five outflow days since the Canary XRP ETF began trading in November 2025 — provide structural support for a medium-term recovery. A third White House session on stablecoin yields, potentially scheduled for June 27, could also boost sentiment.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.