XRP's monthly momentum indicator has fallen below levels recorded during the March 2020 COVID crash, reviving debate over whether the token has reached a cyclical bottom.
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XRP nears $1.09 as monthly oversold readings exceed COVID crash levels
XRP traded near $1.09 on July 30 after analysts flagged monthly Relative Strength Index readings more extreme than the March 2020 COVID crash, reigniting debate over whether a bottom has formed.
"XRP's monthly RSI has dropped below levels seen during the COVID crash in March 2020, which historically preceded significant recoveries," Ash Crypto, an analyst who tracks momentum indicators, said on X. The token sits roughly 72% below its all-time high of $3.84, reached in January 2018.
Derivatives data tells a more nuanced story. Open interest on XRP perpetual futures declined as prices rose, a pattern consistent with short covering rather than fresh long accumulation, analyst CW said on X. Funding rates climbed 52.16% to 0.008685 over the past day, according to Coinglass, indicating bullish conviction among remaining longs without signs of excessive leverage. The Network Value to Transactions ratio surged 144.21% to 697.6, CryptoQuant data shows, suggesting valuation is outpacing on-chain activity.
A decisive three-day close above $1.22 would indicate genuine breakout potential, while losing $1.01 opens the door to further weakness. The Gaussian channel support identified by analyst ChartNerdTA sits near $0.88, a level that preceded extended accumulation ranges in prior cycles.
Exchange activity on Binance collapsed from approximately 650,000 monthly deposit and withdrawal transactions in June to roughly 350,000 currently, a pattern that preceded XRP's rally in October 2025. Declining exchange flows typically indicate reduced distribution pressure, suggesting holders are retaining positions rather than preparing to sell.
Spot exchange-traded products recorded zero net movement on 11 of 17 trading days during July, SoSoValue data shows, pointing to muted institutional appetite. The five XRP ETFs hold $1.49 billion in aggregate inflows against $997.25 million in net assets, with Bitwise commanding the largest position at $312.85 million.
XRP closed one of its strongest months on record in July, advancing roughly 6.83%. Seasonality now works against momentum — August ranks as the flattest month in the token's history, averaging returns of just 0.43%.
The Relative Strength Index registered near 47, below the neutral 50 threshold, indicating bearish momentum has faded but bulls have not established dominance. Price action continues consolidating within the $1.05 to $1.15 range, with $1.08 serving as near-term support.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
