ZEC jumps 7% in privacy coin rally as on-chain data diverges

A Zcash-led squeeze drove privacy coin gains on May 30, but declining active addresses and a mechanical liquidity dynamic suggest the move may lack fundamental backing.

Zcash rose 7.19% to $632.88 during the May 30 trading session, leading a broader rally among privacy tokens that lifted Dash and other anonymity-focused assets, according to CoinGecko data. The move pushed ZEC's market value above $10 billion for the first time since early 2025.

The rally came as ZEC's Market Value to Realized Value ratio climbed to 1.59, with the asset trading well above its realized price of $367.50, Alphractal data shows. The firm described the MVRV structure as constructive rather than euphoric, noting that historical cycle tops for ZEC formed above 3.5 on the same metric.

"The network is in aggregate profit but nowhere near euphoria," Alphractal said in a May 24 post on X. The firm's Net Unrealized Profit and Loss indicator sits inside the "Optimism" zone, a phase that historically preceded continued upside before reaching stronger euphoria conditions.

Derivatives data reinforced the bullish near-term setup. Open interest rose on both daily and weekly timeframes, while a 0.56 long-to-short ratio alongside elevated short liquidations pointed to a short squeeze dynamic, per Alphractal. Trader Ardi identified the $700 region as the next major resistance, with a clean break above that level opening a path toward $740.

On-chain divergence raises sustainability questions

Despite the price strength, on-chain activity tells a different story. Active addresses and transaction counts on the Zcash network declined sharply over the past week, Alphractal data shows. The rally currently relies more on derivatives positioning than organic network growth, the firm warned.

The divergence between price and network usage represents the market anomaly flagged by analysts. Alphractal said the move is real but structurally fragile, with sustainability depending on either stronger usage metrics or sustained leverage flows. Extreme funding conditions without improving address activity could become an exit signal for traders, the firm cautioned.

The mechanical nature of the rally was underscored by a whale trade that surfaced in late May. Arkham Intelligence tracked a wallet that turned $15.85 million into $126 million on ZEC, acquiring 265,018 tokens on Dec. 30, 2024, when ZEC traded near $60. The position survived a 50% drawdown during 2025 before the privacy coin resurgence. The wallet has realized roughly $22.61 million in profits while still holding 230,100 ZEC worth about $126 million, Arkham said.

Grayscale's filing for a spot Zcash ETF earlier this month provided the fundamental catalyst that pushed ZEC to a recent peak above $700. The filing signaled institutional interest in privacy assets, a sector that has largely traded below attention since the 2021 bull cycle.

For the rally to sustain, ZEC needs to hold above its 200-day moving average and reclaim the $700 resistance zone, according to Alphractal's framework. A failure to do so, combined with continued declines in active addresses, could trigger a reversal as the short squeeze exhausts and leverage unwinds.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.