Bitcoin Mining Sector Sees Divergent Trends Amidst AI Pivot and Treasury Model Scrutiny

Bitcoin Mining Stocks Exhibit Robust Performance Amidst Sectoral Divergence

September 2025 proved to be a period of significant divergence within the Bitcoin mining sector, with several key players demonstrating exceptional stock performance while one prominent firm experienced a precipitous decline. Major mining companies recorded substantial gains, largely driven by strategic pivots into artificial intelligence (AI) and high-performance computing (HPC) data center services, alongside broader macroeconomic tailwinds. This surge occurred even as Bitcoin itself declined more than 3% during the same period.

Key Drivers: AI Pivot and Macroeconomic Tailwinds

The robust performance of many Bitcoin mining stocks can be attributed to a strategic shift by these companies towards AI and HPC data center services. This diversification is seen as a way to mitigate risks associated with rising Bitcoin mining difficulty and declining transaction fees. Iris Energy (IREN), for instance, has emerged as a leader in this transition, achieving a 268% return year-to-date and a 368% return over the past 12 months. The company has become a preferred partner of Nvidia, deploying over 60,000 Nvidia Blackwell GPUs and more than 19,000 GB300s in its data centers. Analysts at Canaccord recently raised IREN's price target from $37 to $42, citing its expanding data center infrastructure. Iris Energy projects its AI Cloud business to generate an annual revenue of $200–$250 million by December 2025, a significant increase from its current $16 million.

Cipher Mining (NASDAQ: CIFR) also demonstrated strong momentum, with its stock gaining approximately 40% in September and reaching new 52-week highs at $12.66. The company's AI diversification strategy has contributed to 313% returns over six months. Compass Point initiated coverage with a "Buy" rating and an $8 price target, while Canaccord Genuity raised its target from $9 to $13, highlighting Cipher Mining's operational efficiency and low electricity costs at its Barber Lake facility. The company reported an unexpected net profit of $0.08 per share in Q2, despite revenue falling short of consensus estimates.

Bitfarms (NASDAQ: BITF) led the surge among some peers, registering a 132% gain from its monthly opening price of $1.34 to $3.18 in September. Its market capitalization advanced to approximately $1.769 billion, marking a 94% increase from the end of 2024. The company's stock reached a one-year high of $3.20 on September 18, following ten consecutive days of gains. Bitfarms also reported selling 1,052 BTC in August 2025, indicating a substantial level of liquid assets.

Further bolstering the sector's positive sentiment was the anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cut of 25 basis points around September 17, 2025. This macroeconomic event is expected to inject liquidity into the market, channeling investments into riskier, high-growth assets such as cryptocurrencies and related equities. Increased institutional interest, facilitated by approved spot Bitcoin ETFs, has also contributed to the combined market capitalization of 15 major mining firms nearly doubling from $21 billion to $50 billion.

NAKA Experiences Significant Downturn Amidst Dilution Concerns

In stark contrast to the broader positive trend in the mining sector, KindlyMD (NASDAQ: NAKA), a medical firm that pivoted to a Bitcoin treasury company after merging with Nakamoto Holdings, experienced a severe stock crash. On September 15, 2025, NAKA shares plunged 54% in a single day, closing at $1.28, and had declined over 90% in the preceding month after peaking above $15 in late August.

The primary driver behind NAKA's downturn was its plan to raise up to $5 billion through an at-the-market (ATM) stock program to expand its Bitcoin reserves. This strategy has generated significant equity dilution concerns among investors. The company has already issued approximately 100 million shares via ATM offerings, raising around $200 million. Should the full $5 billion be pursued, it could necessitate the issuance of an additional 4 billion shares, potentially tripling the current outstanding shares and substantially devaluing existing holdings.

Investor fatigue and skepticism towards the digital asset treasury (DAT) model have also played a crucial role. A Grayscale report indicated that market-to-NAV (mNAV) ratios for major DAT companies have converged towards 1.0, suggesting these firms no longer command the premium valuations they once did. Critics, such as Peter Schiff, have openly questioned the viability of Bitcoin-based treasury companies.

"Bitcoin treasury company NAKA is down more than 50% TODAY as insiders dump, and more than 90% since ATH."

CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, suggested that insider activity, specifically "insiders dump," contributed to the crash, noting the "predictable result of half a billion discounting shares stampeding through an order book designed for a few million: supply floods, the price sinks." Furthermore, the release of previously restricted shares from early Private Investment in Public Equity (PIPE) financings, acquired at prices significantly below the public debut price, exacerbated concerns among retail investors. KindlyMD also exhibits troubling financial fundamentals, including deeply negative profitability ratios and a lack of operational cash flow, with share offerings primarily used to acquire Bitcoin rather than improve core business operations.

Bitdeer Introduces New Mining Hardware

Further underscoring the ongoing innovation within the Bitcoin mining sector, Bitdeer Technologies Group (NASDAQ: BTDR) launched its advanced SEALMINER A3 series. This new lineup features both air- and hydro-cooling models, designed to offer enhanced hashrate and improved power efficiency. The introduction of these new miners has contributed to positive sentiment for Bitdeer, with its stock advancing nearly 39% over the past three months and 130% year-over-year. The development of proprietary ASIC technology by Bitdeer is expected to create cost advantages and open new opportunities in the $4 billion to $5 billion annual ASIC market, potentially driving significant revenue and margin improvements. However, some analysts point to the company's current valuation multiples and ongoing high R&D costs as potential challenges to sustained growth and profitability.

Broader Market Context and Future Outlook

The September 2025 market activity highlights a critical juncture for the Bitcoin mining sector. While companies successfully integrating AI and HPC strategies are experiencing robust growth and attracting significant investment, those solely reliant on a Bitcoin treasury model face increasing scrutiny and investor skepticism. The NAKA crash serves as a stark warning regarding the inherent instability of enterprises heavily linked to a pure Bitcoin treasury approach, reinforcing a shift in investor perception where premiums for crypto exposure through public equity instruments are no longer readily paid. The "paper bitcoin" era appears to be concluding, demanding that companies demonstrate real operational value beyond mere cryptocurrency holdings.

Looking ahead, the sector's trajectory will likely continue to be influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly further Federal Reserve decisions on interest rates, and the ongoing evolution of the cryptocurrency market. Companies that can effectively diversify their revenue streams, innovate in hardware technology, and demonstrate sound financial fundamentals are better positioned to navigate the sector's inherent volatility. The coming months will reveal whether the positive momentum in AI-driven mining firms can be sustained, and if the market's skepticism towards Bitcoin treasury models will lead to broader re-evaluations.